{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-1d34557b15be", "docSlug": "c33d8dc1e237", "documentTitle": "Astra Space, Inc. (ASTR)", "authorId": "53_Kerrisdale_Capital", "authorName": "Kerrisdale Capital", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2021-12-01 00:00:00", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "pageNumber": 10, "pageCount": 26, "prevPage": 9, "nextPage": 11, "slideType": "villain_critique", "function": "name_villain", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 10, "notes": "Includes a quote from a 'Mission Manager for a broadband mega-constellation' to undermine Astra's credibility.", "elementsJson": [ "quote_block", "paragraph", "headline_text", "line_chart", "footnote" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-1d34557b15be/10", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-1d34557b15be", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-1d34557b15be.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-1d34557b15be#slide-10", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Perhaps the only thing more far-fetched than Astra's launch rate is how it expects to hold price.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-2b62-723f-b683-edfbfd5bc67e", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.21, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.39 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Non-GEO Launch Market Forecast", "attrs": null, "subkind": "line", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "0e5dde51-d666-467f-8f74-14a1aa138d22", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "market value: $13bn", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": "Quantification", "toolSlug": "quantification", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-2b62-723f-b683-f69a2f464d3f", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.75 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Competition from new entrants and from larger rideshare players lowering price, cost efficiencies from reusable launchers, and improvements in technology and operations all conspire to exert downward pressure on price.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "4b49ad78-2117-4de7-88a3-40f09a0900e0", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Above is Northern Sky Research’s estimate of the value of the global non-GEO launch market – which, after spiking in the middle of the decade as constellations such as Project Kuiper get built out, is not a growth market.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "4cd2c8c1-03ca-4967-b576-762be1b4aa5f", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.86 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Astra’s 2025E launch revenue forecast of $1.125bn assumes it can hold ASP constant at $3.75m and rise in 4 years to become the dominant player in the small launch market.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "eada0057-8a4a-4293-91d3-0751b7945685", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.74, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Happy they got to orbit on last launch a few weeks ago, that’s great, but there’s just a lot of issues with their rocket and their business model...claims of launching every day?", "attrs": null, "subkind": "pull-quote", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "a5ab285a-23be-4941-81af-e02530e98fcf", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Happy they got to orbit on last launch a few weeks ago, that's great, but there's just a lot of issues with their rocket and their business model...claims of launching every day? It's pretty exciting when a launch provider can launch once a month – and sure, everyone would love for rockets to be like airplanes – that's not going to happen for at least another decade. So yes, I have some serious concerns about Astra's claims.\" — Mission Manager for a broadband mega-constellation", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-2b62-723f-b683-f267807217c3", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.6 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Northern Sky Research, Global Satellite Manufacturing and Launch Markets 11th Edition, July 2021.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "0417a6e1-be08-435b-87e2-e8ed966fde46", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.36 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Launch is Not an Attractive, High-Growth Market", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "976a8f97-602b-4758-9419-98f94b8b6e9f", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 22, "from": 6, "beatId": "b063f521-400f-4dac-aa0f-1b5525050f7e", "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster", "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster", "beatName": "Villain Critique", "beatSlug": null, "evidence": "The document critiques Astra Space Inc.'s business model, market position, and financial projections, portraying them as flawed and unrealistic.", "position": 0, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": null, "parentBeatSlug": null } ], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }