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  "documentTitle": "CareDx, Inc. (CDNA)",
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      "text": "The valuation of AlloSure, then, is closer to 48x trailing revenues and over 30x the most recent quarter’s annualized revenue run-rate.",
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      "text": "downside: -70%",
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      "text": "CareDx's valuation, at 18.4x trailing revenues, makes little sense. Over half of CareDx's revenue in its most recent quarter came from its non-AlloSure businesses, which have negligible value.",
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      "text": "The relatively recent success of cfDNA in prenatal and cancer applications has allowed for anticipation about applications in transplant diagnostics to go almost totally unchecked.",
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      "text": "The expectations implied in CareDx's valuation are completely unmoored from reality. At best, AlloSure may be used in the niche application of AMR treatment monitoring.",
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      "text": "VI. Valuation and Conclusion",
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