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  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-0c85e40ec39b",
  "docSlug": "9b248b07037e",
  "documentTitle": "CareDx, Inc. (CDNA)",
  "authorId": "53_Kerrisdale_Capital",
  "authorName": "Kerrisdale Capital",
  "documentKindSlug": "research-note",
  "documentKindLabel": "Research note",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2019-07-01 00:00:00",
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  "density": "balanced",
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  "notes": "This is a research note from Kerrisdale Capital criticizing CareDx's market sizing methodology.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "The TAM for AlloSure is a fraction of CareDx’s claims and Medicare coverage will be scaled back accordingly",
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      "text": "TAM: $2 billion",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "CareDx claims that the total addressable market (TAM) for AlloSure is over $2 billion. It gets to that number by multiplying the estimated number of people in the US living with a kidney transplant (~190,000) by the “recommended” number of annual AlloSure tests...",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "On a per-patient basis, the TAM assumptions are even more absurd. The annual cost of medical care post-transplant is about $25 thousand dollars on average. But that includes the elevated expenditures in the immediate aftermath of the transplant...",
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      "text": "30 Total Medicare expenditures are ~$3.5 billion while Medicare accounts for about 55% of total expenditures on transplant patients. 31 Data is from UCSF. Medicare expenditures per transplant patients are about $35 thousand per year...",
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      "text": "The TAM for AlloSure is a fraction of CareDx's claims and Medicare coverage will be scaled back accordingly",
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      "evidence": "The document emphasizes the risks of not acting on AlloSure's ineffectiveness",
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      "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point",
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      "evidence": "The document presents a big bet on AlloSure's vulnerability to competition and Medicare risk",
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