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  "documentTitle": "SoFi Technologies (SOFI)",
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  "authorName": "Muddy Waters",
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  "notes": "Includes a table of Fitch and DBRS default assumptions and a discussion on fair value adjustments based on third-party transactions.",
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      "text": "Fitch's most recent initial assumption of 8.40% cumulative (SCLP 2026-1) translates to approximately 4.7% annualized—already 1.7x SOFI's reported 2.80% charge-off rate, and still rising with every deal.",
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      "text": "cumulative lifetime default: 8.40%",
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      "text": "At the adjusted 2025 default rate of approximately 6.77%, SOFI's DCF model produces a company favorable Personal Loan Fair Value of approximately 102% of UPB, versus the 106.4% reported. This reduces 2025 Adjusted EBITDA by $259 million (24.6% of reported).",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Fitch and Morningstar DBRS independently corroborate our adjusted charge-off estimates. Exhibit II-4 presents their cumulative lifetime default and loss assumptions for each SOFI-sponsored Personal Loan ABS trust.",
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      "text": "A third-party transaction corroborates our adjusted fair value. In June 2024, Luminarx Skyfi Holdings 2024 Trust purchased $750 million in SOFI personal loans at 100.6% of UPB—far below the 106.4% at which SOFI carries these loans on its balance sheet.",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "12Bill of Sale, SoFi Bank N.A. to Cantor Fitzgerald Securities (June 28, 2024)...",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Fitch Ratings surveillance and presale reports; Morningstar DBRS presale reports. See footnotes for individual links.",
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      "text": "Trust, Fitch Initial, Fitch 1st Raise, Fitch 2nd Raise, DBRS Default, DBRS NCL",
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      "text": "Exhibit II-4: Rating Agency Default Assumptions — SOFI Consumer Loan Trusts",
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      "text": "F. Impact on Fair Value and EBITDA",
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