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  "docSlug": "441ad2469b6b",
  "documentTitle": "SoFi Technologies (SOFI)",
  "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters",
  "authorName": "Muddy Waters",
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  "presentationDate": "2026-03-17 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide argues that SOFI's recovery rate assumptions are unrealistic and that their default rate should be ~50% higher.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "This implies a recovery rate of roughly 24% to 40%, which appears unrealistic and raises concerns about the reliability of the DCF model used by SOFI.",
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      "text": "Adjusted FV Default Rate: 7.91%",
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      "text": "SOFI's FV model then applies a multiplier of approximately 1.32-1.67x to translate the experienced charge-off rate into the assumed default rate. This implies a recovery rate of roughly 24% to 40%, which appears unrealistic.",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Notes: FV Model Default Rate is the weighted-average default rate SOFI discloses... Source: SoFi Technologies 10-K and 10-Q filings (2024–2025); Fitch Ratings; Morningstar DBRS; Muddy Waters estimates.",
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      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Table showing Q1 24 through Q4 25 metrics including FV Model Default Rate, Reported Charge Off Rate, Delinquent Loan Sale Losses, Off-B/S Charge Offs, FV-Based Impact, Adjusted Charge-Off Rate, MW Multiplier, and Adjusted FV Default Rate.",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Exhibit II-3: Adjusted Default Rate (Q1 2024 – Q4 2025)",
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