{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-831dc7f7d364",
  "docSlug": "398831f1133a",
  "documentTitle": "Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT)",
  "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters",
  "authorName": "Muddy Waters Research",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2023-12-06 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.7777778,
  "pageNumber": 6,
  "pageCount": 51,
  "prevPage": 5,
  "nextPage": 7,
  "slideType": "problem_statement",
  "function": "diagnose_problem",
  "density": "balanced",
  "nDataPoints": 1,
  "notes": "The slide uses a causal chain to explain why BXMT is vulnerable to current macro conditions.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "bullet_list"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-831dc7f7d364/6",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-831dc7f7d364",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-831dc7f7d364.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-831dc7f7d364#slide-6",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.95,
        "x": 0.025,
        "y": 0.78
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Unless SOFR hits ~3.5% in H2 2024 without the economy slowing, we think BXMT will be hammered by the macro.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c2458fda-4d4e-4d18-a989-fb4a269d3698",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.2,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.55
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Anticipated rate cuts would be too little, too late for many CRE borrowers. Rates would be cut to address macro weakness – the type of weakness to which much CRE is exposed. CRE asset value changes generally lag rate movements.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "9917161f-a1ca-4ad9-a510-bfa052709472",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.2,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.35
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "CRE asset values are down because of sharply higher rates. Many CRE borrowers owe more than their properties are currently worth. Because lenders typically only lend 60% to 70% of a property's value, \"upside down\" borrowers are unable to refinance and pay off interest-only loans.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "bd9f3be3-70d5-483d-bd34-900874ec20bd",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.2,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.15
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "In office, NOIs are down because of changes since the pandemic. Vacancies are going even higher as existing leases terminate. Opex is higher due to inflation. Decreased NOIs make it harder to service debt.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "f54b8b5a-812f-4def-b9c3-19da296fa320",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.06,
        "w": 0.35,
        "x": 0.025,
        "y": 0.04
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "The Perfect Macro Storm",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "14251207-4a1a-4277-a096-a513460d8dcc",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "causal-chain",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "5d9f6543-20a9-49b2-bf2a-63580a912c8a",
      "evidence": "The slide links macro factors (rates, inflation) to property-level outcomes (NOI, LTV) and finally to firm-specific risk (BXMT).",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 8,
      "from": 6,
      "beatId": "1dac1199-1c21-4e60-b138-c6f8d4601083",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "Complication",
      "beatSlug": "complication",
      "evidence": "The document highlights the potential risks and complications facing BXMT, including the impact of SOFR and the CMBS market.",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": null,
      "parentBeatSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}