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  "documentTitle": "Sunrun Inc. (RUN)",
  "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters",
  "authorName": "Carson C. Block",
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  "presentationDate": "2022-07-28 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide uses a 'three pillars' framework to structure the short thesis. It includes direct quotes from a former employee to bolster credibility.",
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      "text": "We believe that a realistic range for Net Earning Assets is $426 million to $1.0 billion, an adjustment downward of between -77.5% and -90.4%.",
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      "text": "Net Earning Assets: -90.4%",
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      "text": "Muddy Waters is short Sunrun Inc. (RUN) because we see it as an uneconomic business built on three shaky pillars: The equity story of exaggerated “Subscriber Values” and “Gross / Net Earning Assets”, funding growth through abusing tax incentives, and issuing ABS that could be exposed to a RUN bankruptcy. These pillars, in turn, are built on a foundation of dubious financial models. If one of these three pillars wobbles, RUN would likely face a funding gap and would require equity issuances to continue growing. Insiders have already become ultra-wealthy, having net sold shares since July 2020 for $205.9 million. RUN is on its third CFO since January 2020.",
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      "text": "We believe that a realistic range for Net Earning Assets is $426 million to $1.0 billion, an adjustment downward of between -77.5% and -90.4%. We explain our assumptions, and why we believe they are far more realistic than RUN’s, herein.",
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      "text": "RUN has bamboozled the IRS by inflating the tax bases of its Power Purchase Agreements. Working with pliable appraisers, it turns systems for which arms length buyers claim tax bases of $3.38 / watt into approximately $5.00 / watt. We believe that this inflation is impermissible, especially considering that part of the basis inflation comes from including the value of the anticipated tax benefits in the basis itself.",
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      "text": "“That $3,000 [per customer] of renewal value is not real value. You should be very skeptical there... and you know, I would say there's significant creative license taken in calculating those renewal values. They're nowhere near what they should be; they're not being conservative... and in those numbers, in fact, it's the opposite. They've been quite aggressive, right?”",
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      "text": "“Now the in terms of the non-GAAP metrics like Subscriber Value that are used to basically explain to the Street and to investors, what are the underlying economics at a customer level... those numbers are completely, I wouldn’t say they’re made up numbers, but there's no validation... You should be highly skeptical.”",
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      "text": "That $3,000 [per customer] of renewal value is not real value. You should be very skeptical there... and you know, I would say there's significant creative license taken in calculating those renewal values. They're nowhere near what they should be; they're not being conservative... and in those numbers, in fact, it's the opposite. They've been quite aggressive, right? — Former RUN Executive A",
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      "text": "1 Bloomberg data\n2 Interview with Former RUN Executive A, October 2021",
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      "text": "Intro: RUN Rests on Three Shaky Pillars on a Foundation of Dubious Models",
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      "text": "Shaky Pillar One – The Pot of Gold at the End of the Rainbow",
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      "text": "Shaky Pillar Two – Bamboozling the IRS to Finance Growth",
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