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  "docSlug": "b32b6e967105",
  "documentTitle": "KE Holdings (BEKE)",
  "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters",
  "authorName": "Carson C. Block",
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  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2021-12-16 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide uses a 'fraud-exposure' framework to contrast company-reported figures with independent data collection results.",
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      "text": "Put simply, data collected over months directly from BEKE's platform strongly indicates that the Company is massively exaggerating new home GTV and revenue from its platform, a pattern we also see when we analyze existing home sales.",
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      "text": "GTV inflation percentage: 126%",
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      "text": "Put simply, data collected over months directly from BEKE's platform strongly indicates that the Company is massively exaggerating new home GTV and revenue from its platform, a pattern we also see when we analyze existing home sales.",
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      "text": "The methodology for estimating existing home GTV required more assumptions than for new homes. Our estimate of BEKE's GTV exaggeration of existing home transactions would be significantly greater had we not intentionally made so many assumptions in the Company's favor.",
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      "text": "BEKE reported GTV of RMB 1,030 billion from existing home sales in Q2-Q3, 2021. However, our estimate from the data collection from the BEKE platform indicates that the real GTV was only approximately RMB 775 billion in that period, meaning that we estimate a ~33% GTV inflation over Q2-Q3 2021 for existing home transactions.",
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      "text": "Despite such conservatism, the data nevertheless shows material exaggeration of GTV when compared with BEKE's claims. On a blended basis, we estimate that BEKE overstated its GTV from new and existing homes by approximately ~65% in Q2-Q3 2021, with the exaggeration especially pronounced in the critical new home category (~126% inflation).",
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      "text": "Three tables showing New Home GTV inflation for 2Q 2021, 3Q 2021, and 2Q-3Q 2021.",
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      "text": "Table comparing Reported vs MW estimate GTV for existing home sales.",
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      "text": "b. Existing Home Sales GTV Also Significantly Exaggerated",
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