{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-3ced42d9dbe0",
  "docSlug": "b32b6e967105",
  "documentTitle": "KE Holdings (BEKE)",
  "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters",
  "authorName": "Carson C. Block",
  "documentKindSlug": "research-note",
  "documentKindLabel": "Research note",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2021-12-16 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 62,
  "pageCount": 77,
  "prevPage": 61,
  "nextPage": 63,
  "slideType": "appendix_data",
  "function": "analyze_data",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 25,
  "notes": "Includes a footnote regarding 3Q21 data adjustments.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "data_table",
    "numbered_list",
    "paragraph",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-3ced42d9dbe0/62",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-3ced42d9dbe0",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-3ced42d9dbe0.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-3ced42d9dbe0#slide-62",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "BEKE's 2Q21 reported existing home GTV sales for its Lianjia stores of RMB 309.5 billion, suggesting that the Lianjia existing home GTV figure was inflated by approximately ~43%.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-25b5-768c-bb47-c80367cb7bbc",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "GTV inflation: 43%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-25b5-768c-bb47-ccfe00aa7e69",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.07,
        "w": 0.76,
        "x": 0.12,
        "y": 0.52
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "In 3Q21, BEKE claimed that Lianjia stores' existing home sales GTV was RMB 185.3 billion... we estimated that in 3Q21 BEKE's Lianjia existing home sales GTV was only Rmb ~161 billion, or inflated by approximately ~15%.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "6ef21ab1-226a-4852-a569-9acc54eb272a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.06,
        "w": 0.76,
        "x": 0.12,
        "y": 0.4
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "After calculating the total... we approximate that BEKE's existing home GTV from Lianjia stores in Q2 2021 was only ~RMB 217 billion.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "9101b112-a992-4285-9348-03c46b6503e7",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.76,
        "x": 0.12,
        "y": 0.31
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Additional Adjustment for 1st half of 2Q21: 1. CREA data... 2. Calculateion... 3. Adjust number... 4. Adjustment ratio...",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "94170409-a173-43c2-9b9d-810595ac2785",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.76,
        "x": 0.12,
        "y": 0.47
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "BEKE's 2Q21 reported existing home GTV sales for its Lianjia stores of RMB 309.5 billion, suggesting that the Lianjia existing home GTV figure was inflated by approximately ~43%.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c507f154-59ce-4303-964a-f5b009bb250f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.76,
        "x": 0.12,
        "y": 0.87
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Since the 76-day period of collected data for all cities except for Shanghai originated from within the 3Q21, no timing adjustments were necessary.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "d084058c-1569-4ef6-bd8e-0b304283af25",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.18,
        "w": 0.76,
        "x": 0.12,
        "y": 0.11
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Table showing transaction counts, daily averages, collection days, and adjustment calculations for April-August.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "360d573d-db20-4255-b7d2-73c4f803cd45",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.7,
        "x": 0.15,
        "y": 0.09
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Adjustments to 2Q21 Estimated Number of Transactions for Timing Difference of Collection Period",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "fac89565-0d62-47f9-89db-ed0a5334c23d",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "fraud-exposure",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "972935e9-51a8-4d96-8a91-eae9fda2411c",
      "evidence": "The slide uses data adjustments to argue that reported GTV figures were inflated.",
      "confidence": 0.8
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 76,
      "from": 3,
      "beatId": "ddedf5e8-3914-43cf-aba0-b4c0cc55dd1d",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "Expose Contradiction",
      "beatSlug": null,
      "evidence": "Repeated instances of contradictions and discrepancies in BEKE’s reporting",
      "position": 0,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "parentBeatName": null,
      "parentBeatSlug": null
    },
    {
      "to": 64,
      "from": 11,
      "beatId": "382ec6e2-a400-4ea9-8b1f-5841c2e59259",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "Preempt Rebuttal",
      "beatSlug": null,
      "evidence": "Anticipating and addressing potential rebuttals to the findings",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "parentBeatName": null,
      "parentBeatSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 64,
      "from": 57,
      "name": "Cost Of Inaction",
      "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction",
      "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation",
      "matchId": "795f35a3-30fc-4acf-9770-5cb2b0a1e8b5",
      "evidence": "Estimated GTV and revenue inflation",
      "position": 2,
      "objective": "What are the consequences of not addressing BEKE’s fraud?",
      "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}