{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-3ced42d9dbe0",
  "docSlug": "b32b6e967105",
  "documentTitle": "KE Holdings (BEKE)",
  "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters",
  "authorName": "Carson C. Block",
  "documentKindSlug": "research-note",
  "documentKindLabel": "Research note",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2021-12-16 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 10,
  "pageCount": 77,
  "prevPage": 9,
  "nextPage": 11,
  "slideType": "expose_contradiction",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 12,
  "notes": "Includes two tables detailing revenue recognition accounting and commission rate comparisons.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "paragraph",
    "kpi_table",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-3ced42d9dbe0/10",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-3ced42d9dbe0",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-3ced42d9dbe0.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-3ced42d9dbe0#slide-10",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "We conclude from our estimates that BEKE's revenues are significantly inflated, even at BEKE's reported commission rates.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-25b5-768c-bb42-5b277b5bb6e5",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "revenue inflation: ~77%-96%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-25b5-768c-bb42-5e65a78db6e6",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.78,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.74
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Applying BEKE's reported commission rates to the GTV data collected from BEKE's platform, we calculate that BEKE's actual home transaction services revenues were only approximately RMB 23 billion...",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "b1c50051-9526-42af-94e1-f864e3df7fa9",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.78,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.12
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Because BEKE's commission revenue is a function of its GTV, and principally BEKE's new home sales GTV, we conclude from our estimates that BEKE's revenues are significantly inflated...",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c0f33016-e891-44aa-88fa-741e33913beb",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.78,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.91
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "16 The connected stores are the brokerage firms on the BEKE platform under the brands of Deyou and others except for Lianjia.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "35c94008-f8e7-4f68-8d09-46adc05830b2",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.72,
        "x": 0.14,
        "y": 0.42
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Table: Revenue recognition for different types of home sales",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "7c87f850-dc2f-4258-878a-028d7f19e027",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.58,
        "x": 0.21,
        "y": 0.65
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Reported commission rate table",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "b67e3aec-d0a6-4130-b085-699b0225f2c5",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.6,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.09
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "We Conclude that BEKE Inflates Revenues by approximately ~77%-96%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "29ceb039-ff2f-4c20-bcfb-585453b8cefd",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "fraud-exposure",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "1fb19038-d808-4492-a295-15dce579e414",
      "evidence": "The slide explicitly claims revenue inflation and provides a methodology for calculating the discrepancy.",
      "confidence": 0.95
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 76,
      "from": 3,
      "beatId": "ddedf5e8-3914-43cf-aba0-b4c0cc55dd1d",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "Expose Contradiction",
      "beatSlug": null,
      "evidence": "Repeated instances of contradictions and discrepancies in BEKE’s reporting",
      "position": 0,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "parentBeatName": null,
      "parentBeatSlug": null
    },
    {
      "to": 53,
      "from": 6,
      "beatId": "d6258a57-2813-4874-af77-9bec6ca2bd69",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "Appendix Methodology",
      "beatSlug": null,
      "evidence": "Detailed methodology for data collection and analysis",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "parentBeatName": null,
      "parentBeatSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 10,
      "from": 3,
      "name": "Aha Moment",
      "slug": "03-aha-moment",
      "bestFor": "Data-heavy sections, research findings, analytical arguments",
      "matchId": "44b15c05-aab8-47cf-a1ba-36748d04e6cc",
      "evidence": "Initial findings of contradictions in BEKE’s reporting",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "What is BEKE’s actual financial situation?",
      "structure": "The Problem/Question -> What the Data Shows -> The Insight",
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "description": "Establish a tension, present data, then deliver the insight that changes everything"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}