{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4", "docSlug": "4122ae57ab1a", "documentTitle": "Danimer Scientific (DNMR)", "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters", "authorName": "Carson Block", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2021-09-15 00:00:00", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "pageNumber": 18, "pageCount": 20, "prevPage": 17, "nextPage": 19, "slideType": "appendix_disclosure", "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "Contains citations 45-50. Focuses on market skepticism regarding DNMR's TAM projections.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block", "footnote" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.95, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4/18", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4#slide-18", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "There are industry, economic, technical, policy, and regulatory reasons why PHA – and bioplastics overall – will not be nearly as large as DNMR purports.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd952-fb94-7034-9dd4-2c0c2f5fcd82", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The experts with whom we spoke disputed DNMR's TAM and the potential for PHA to dominate the bioplastics market.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "411b384a-acb5-49ce-b6c4-d40463ec69a0", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "billion. For 2027, they range from $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion. We found a 2031 bioplastics market estimate of $47 billion. PHA is likely only to constitute a slice of the bioplastics market.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "469b822d-1c81-4b1c-99ac-23bbbd5a9e8f", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.56 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "There are industry, economic, technical, policy, and regulatory reasons why PHA – and bioplastics overall – will not be nearly as large as DNMR purports.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "6d5aeccf-663e-4489-92e2-e72cd3a8d658", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Global efforts at building out recycling infrastructure to date have created entrenched interests ranging from owners of recycling equipment (often municipalities) to petrochemical companies with plans and technology capable of recovering and reusing current polymers. Meanwhile, PHAs and other bioplastics are often demonized as contaminants in the recycling feedstock", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "accc32dd-23f9-4af6-b44b-eb0e69849cf2", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.42 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "According to a bioplastics industry expert with whom we spoke, the four fastest-growing bioplastics are PLA, PBAT, starch, and then PHA. PHAs have potential to grow their share quickly, with several manufacturers coming online in the next few years; however, at the same time, he emphasized that the challenges of ramping up actual capacity to theoretical nameplate capacity were large and not easily or quickly overcome. Meanwhile, PLA will remain the dominant player because of its much lower selling price, established large-scale capacity, and more mature technology.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "e12a6f46-27ab-41c4-b6ba-f376702e349a", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.32 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "And you know the unfortunate part of everything, is I think a lot of people do not realize that the market opportunity for biodegradable polymers is very limited. Because the reality is that so much energy is stored within most polymers, you actually want to reuse them. You want to find ways to pull it back.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "pull-quote", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b076808a-e83d-4228-a7cc-2865d7847351", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.21 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "My projection is if PLA is a billion pounds per year right now and that took let's see up in here to like fifteen or twenty years to get to a billion pounds per year, PHA I think can go a lot faster, but there'll be like two billion pounds, you're not going to be a hundred billion pounds.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "pull-quote", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b0ef3f46-a2cb-4178-b750-f0b2fea9bf1c", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "My projection is if PLA is a billion pounds per year right now and that look let's see up in here to like fifteen or twenty years to get to a billion pounds per year, PHA I think can go a lot faster, but there'll be like two billion pounds, you're not going to be a hundred billion pounds. — PepsiCo source; And you know the unfortunate part of everything, is I think a lot of people do not realize that the market opportunity for biodegradable polymers is very limited. Because the reality is that so much energy is stored within most polymers, you actually want to reuse them. You want to find ways to pull it back. — Novomer former manager", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd952-fb94-7034-9dd4-305da583409a", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.74 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "45-50: Citations and URLs", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "70ea7b0d-67f2-4320-9b90-a36804329417", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.61 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Industry – Entrenched Interests", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "a863749f-6678-4d31-8c78-a896367731eb", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "matchId": "2153e244-3d4a-4fcf-ba57-03c8c7f48cf8", "evidence": "The slide includes quotes from a bioplastics industry expert and references to specific reports and URLs.", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [ { "to": 19, "from": 17, "name": "Cost Of Inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "matchId": "692ccc90-2757-4e01-99e9-dc1bef8c4351", "evidence": "The report presents a discussion of the costs and technical challenges of DNMR's production plan", "position": 2, "objective": "What are the risks of investing in DNMR?", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "confidence": 0.6, "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }