{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-2cc02e385014", "docSlug": "86aeeaf4ca9c", "documentTitle": "XL Fleet (XL)", "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters", "authorName": "Muddy Waters Capital", "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2021-03-03 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.2941177, "pageNumber": 32, "pageCount": 53, "prevPage": 31, "nextPage": 33, "slideType": "villain_critique", "function": "name_villain", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "Uses expert/former employee testimony to undermine management's technical credibility.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "quote_block" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-2cc02e385014/32", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-2cc02e385014", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-2cc02e385014.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-2cc02e385014#slide-32", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "XL DOES NOT HAVE ENGINEERING TALENT OR KNOWHOW TO COMPETE IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-14dc-7419-88c9-e3fcb78bc319", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.24 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "XL offers two types of hybrid products: a regenerative braking hybrid with a small battery and a plug-in hybrid with a larger battery. Based on our conversations with former employees and others in the supply chain, these hybrids seem obsolete and do not position XL to succeed in the EV market. At the same time, XL's product line is ill-suited for heavier vehicles.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "137edfb9-ee1c-4355-bb7b-212fb04eaeb2", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.37 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Yet, XL claims that revenue from full EV upfits and heavy trucks will be hundreds of millions of dollars by 2024. Substantially all of the former XL employees with whom we spoke expressed disbelief that XL could reach those targets:", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "e8ad1add-5354-498d-a6d1-451870fe17eb", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.46 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "“I don’t think they have the talent right now to [meet their revenue goals]. Each class of vehicle at the time required a significant amount of research, testing. If they want to introduce 10 new vehicle models, that’s a several-year project. They would need really good relationships with the OEMs to do that. And they would probably need to get the outfitter network to be more robust. The upfitters have to be trained to do these upfits. For each incremental model they have to re-teach the upfitters. The upfitter model is attractive, but what goes unsaid is if you don’t have good upfitters, customers return the vehicles... Two [XL] guys... were traveling around the country to make up for upfitter fuck-ups. Up-fitters were fucking up all the time.” – Former XL Employee D", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "5a01b310-4951-48bb-82e0-cb32fc7236a6", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.74 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "“Rivian, etc. has a skateboard chassis—it’s all flat. They’ve really packaged it in such a way that it’s pretty clean. You don’t have that... every vehicle that XL wants to do, they need a different package for, because it’s different underneath... bracketry’s different, dimensions are different, everything’s different.” – Former XL Employee H", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "f4820d27-1c37-4e43-938f-fadd427c0d65", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“I don’t think they have the talent right now to [meet their revenue goals]. Each class of vehicle at the time required a significant amount of research, testing. If they want to introduce 10 new vehicle models, that’s a several-year project. They would need really good relationships with the OEMs to do that. And they would probably need to get the outfitter network to be more robust. The upfitters have to be trained to do these upfits. For each incremental model they have to re-teach the upfitters. The upfitter model is attractive, but what goes unsaid is if you don’t have good upfitters, customers return the vehicles... Two [XL] guys... were traveling around the country to make up for upfitter fuck-ups. Up-fitters were fucking up all the time.” — Former XL Employee D; “Rivian, etc. has a skateboard chassis—it’s all flat. They’ve really packaged it in such a way that it’s pretty clean. You don’t have that... every vehicle that XL wants to do, they need a different package for, because it’s different underneath... bracketry’s different, dimensions are different, everything’s different.” — Former XL Employee H", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-14dc-7419-88c9-e4325e7e9ff4", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "title", "text": "XL DOES NOT HAVE ENGINEERING TALENT OR KNOWHOW TO COMPETE IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES", "attrs": null, "subkind": "action-title", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "757d03bc-8c73-4f61-9278-e1f4e503f349", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.16, "x": 0.42, "y": 0.1 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Weak Technology", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "70c3b81a-06cc-4523-a4dd-82fe01860a4e", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "authority-citation", "slug": null, "matchId": "1ac65806-8ccb-43ab-8936-8e6c25a9f5b1", "evidence": "Uses former employee quotes to build credibility for the critique.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }