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  "documentTitle": "MultiPlan Corp (MPLN)",
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  "authorName": "Carson C. Block",
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  "presentationDate": "2020-11-11 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "Contains two distinct tables: one modeling revenue attrition from Naviguard, and one comparing MultiPlan's guidance against S&P's estimates.",
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      "text": "Altogether, these components sum to $385.8 million of lost MPLN revenue in 2022, which translates to an organic Adjusted EBITDA and Levered Free Cash Flow decline of $294.2 million.",
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      "text": "Adjusted EBITDA: $294.2 million",
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      "text": "Neither MPLN's estimates nor S&P's recent forecasts account for MPLN's top customer carving out their core business. Therefore, when we factor in the loss of revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and Levered Free Cash Flow arising from customer defection by United and others to MPLN's implied future performance, a significantly more dismal picture of the business emerges.",
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      "text": "customer, even as we understand that Naviguard will continue to exert pricing pressure while rolling out its product further to other carriers. For these reasons, we project declines for the remaining, non-United MPLN business of 10% and 20% over 2021 and 2022, respectively.",
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      "text": "S&P recently published estimates that also come in significantly below MPLN’s 2021 guidance, and yet management has not withdrawn this guidance. The rating agency’s release dated October 20, 2020 shows a much dimmer view of MPLN’s sales and EBITDA.",
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      "text": "22 Interviews with Executive at Top-Five Health Plan and Naviguard Executive, October 2020",
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      "text": "MultiPlan Revenue and Profitability Forecasts",
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      "text": "Naviguard Stands to Erode MultiPlan's Business Even In The Near Term",
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