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  "documentTitle": "PeptiDream, Inc. (4587 JP)",
  "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters",
  "authorName": "Carson C. Block",
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  "presentationDate": "2019-11-07 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "Uses a visual metaphor (dump truck vs. scooter vs. sports car) to represent different drug modalities, likely implying size or complexity differences.",
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      "text": "Sell-side analysts justify their price targets through contortions of logic, such as assuming development success rates six times the industry norm – even for a company with PeptiDream's dismal track record.",
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      "text": "We forecast that PeptiDream will have no more than one commercially successful drug through 2027. In contrast, the sell-side analysts who follow PeptiDream have predicted a number of successful products, ranging from a difficult-to-believe eight to a ludicrous 15.",
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      "text": "For any pharmaceutical company, the probability of progressing through the successive stages of drug development is low, and failure can occur at each stage. Typically, hundreds of compounds are screened to hone down to one or two lead compounds go into preclinical testing. Of these, fewer than one in ten typically make it market (see Figure I).",
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      "text": "PeptiDream is Likely to Fall Far Short of Analysts' Intellectually Dishonest Expectations",
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