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  "documentTitle": "Burford Capital (BUR)",
  "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters",
  "authorName": "Carson C. Block",
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  "presentationDate": "2020-02-10 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide uses a short table to calculate H2 2019 net realized gains based on upper and lower bounds, demonstrating a sharp decline.",
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      "text": "The midpoint of that range equates to a YoY collapse of -85% in net realized gains for the second half of 2019.",
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      "text": "Net Realized Gains: -85%",
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      "text": "Burford failed to generate meaningful monetizations, and then management bizarrely announced its intention to raise more debt.",
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      "text": "H2 net realized gains appear to be only $1.9 million to $11.9 million. Burford disclosed that consolidated net realized gains for 2019 were approximately $20 million to $30 million lower than they had been in 2018.",
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      "text": "Burford begs us to consider a supposedly phenomenal January 2020, but its language indicates that it intends to book significant unrealized gains during this month, rather than realized gains.",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "It is worth refreshing what the account “net realized gains” actually means. In our initial report, we explained that Burford was deceiving investors by conflating this account with a meaningless non-IFRS metric it created called “realized gains”.",
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      "text": "Burford 2019 Update on Trading Performance. We assume that Burford’s net realized gains profit warning refers to the consolidated balance sheet... H1 2019 consolidated investments were $1,768.4 million, versus $1,218.0 million as of H1 2018.",
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      "text": "2019E Net Realized Gains, Upper Bound ($mn) 151.5; Less H1 2019 Net Realized Gains (139.5); H2 2019E Net Realized Gains, Upper Bound 11.9; 2019E Net Realized Gains, Lower Bound ($mn) 141.5; Less H1 2019 Net Realized Gains (139.5); H2 2019E Net Realized Gains, Lower Bound 1.9",
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      "text": "Whither \"Unbridled Optimism\"?",
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