{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-b98bce058d93",
  "docSlug": "a08bb897003a",
  "documentTitle": "Inogen, Inc. (INGN)",
  "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters",
  "authorName": "Carson Block",
  "documentKindSlug": "research-note",
  "documentKindLabel": "Research note",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2019-02-08 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 8,
  "pageCount": 27,
  "prevPage": 7,
  "nextPage": 9,
  "slideType": "expose_contradiction",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 81,
  "notes": "The slide uses a table to demonstrate a -2.6% CAGR in the oxygen therapy patient population, directly challenging management's claims of 7-10% growth.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "paragraph",
    "data_table",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-b98bce058d93/8",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-b98bce058d93",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-b98bce058d93.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-b98bce058d93#slide-8",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "By doing three elementary-school division problems, we again disprove the growth narrative.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-203f-7169-9f94-6e2b78371ac5",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Total US oxygen therapy patient population: -2.6%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-203f-7169-9f94-7102217bdafd",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.045,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.379
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Our above analysis directly contradicts management, who have attempted to downplay CMS data as a tool for understanding market growth.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "2f91c6e9-ce25-4f66-ac27-7fa1e53f7758",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.035,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.093
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Combining the KFF and CMS Part B National Summary data shows that the total market for oxygen therapy has declined by -16.7% from 2010 to 2017.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c900d194-092e-4041-b0e6-826348aa5418",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.06,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.71
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Until recently, INGN's management have consistently pushed the narrative that the US oxygen market is between three to four million patients and that the market is growing 7% to 10% annually.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "e71cb8a5-f170-4227-9be5-7407ba99823f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.075,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.536
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Management recently appears to have distanced itself from the TAM size and growth estimates, which we believe validates our estimates and shows management is aware it has spread misinformation.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "fadd8917-b1a9-41e8-9051-2654e545d10e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.125,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.225
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Table showing oxygen therapy patient population data from 2010-2017 with a -2.6% CAGR.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "18a306a0-0e72-4ae8-9be3-dd03b87c1084",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.045,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.465
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Management's Misstatements of TAM and Growth Appear Intentional. We Note that Management Has Sold Over $145 Million of Stock on the Back of These Misrepresentations.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "action-title",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c5513cd7-d11e-46a5-8d9d-0ea1999b3f79",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.25,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.676
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Is a Quiet CYA Campaign Afoot?",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "998748f7-ad76-47e6-b0e9-2e4a333c8c0a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "fraud-exposure",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "73d51985-b1d4-4bd6-92d7-1633b53ae727",
      "evidence": "The slide explicitly accuses management of intentional misrepresentation and stock selling based on false narratives.",
      "confidence": 0.95
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}