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  "documentTitle": "Inogen, Inc. (INGN)",
  "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters",
  "authorName": "Carson Block",
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  "presentationDate": "2019-02-08 00:00:00",
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      "text": "At our forecast of peak earnings, we value INGN at $46 per share, a 67% decrease from its current price.",
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      "text": "INGN management states that the potential penetration rate among ambulatory oxygen users is 90%, which is significantly higher than the rate other sources provide. In other words, management's potential penetration rate estimate, regardless of the true TAM, appears extremely optimistic.",
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      "text": "The INGN management estimates are actually the work of an obscure research firm called WinterGreen Research, Inc. We reviewed the 2017 WinterGreen report, and frankly feel it is middle school student quality, replete with misspellings, poor grammar, bizarre statements of fact, and even outright plagiarism from the New York Times. INGN management should know better than to take WinterGreen's work as authoritative.",
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      "text": "We expect INGN sales to peak no later than next year. While POC penetration rates should continue to rise, the mix of B2B sales likely imposes a significant barrier to further growth because POCs sold to B2B customers will be used for multiple users over the lives of the devices. At our forecast of peak earnings, we value INGN at $46 per share, a 67% decrease from its current price.",
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      "text": "INGN boosted its Q3 2018 gross margin by 177 bps by reducing two provisions. Without these shenanigans, gross margins would have declined YoY in Q3 2018. We see the compressing gross margin as evidence that reported growth has been much harder to generate than investors perceive, as opposed to the apparent view of a company floating on a rising tide.",
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      "text": "Muddy Waters is short Inogen, Inc. (INGN) because we believe management has created an egregiously false narrative about the TAM size and growth. We estimate the U.S. market is 1.3 million users and is actually shrinking at a CAGR of -2.6%. This contrasts with management disseminated TAM estimates of over 3.0 million users, and growth of 7% to 10%.",
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      "text": "stock price: $139.74",
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      "text": "Report Date: February 8, 2019\nCompany: Inogen, Inc.\nTickers: INGN US\nIndustry: Medical Devices\nStock Price (USD): $139.74\nMarket Cap (USD): $3.0 billion\nAverage Daily Volume (USD, 90-Day): $69.0 million",
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