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  "docSlug": "50bcb497e381",
  "documentTitle": "TAL Education Group (TAL)",
  "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters",
  "authorName": "Carson C. Block",
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  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2018-07-25 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide details a forensic accounting attempt to reconcile reported figures, concluding that management's representations are mathematically inconsistent.",
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      "text": "We believe that under any reasonable set of conditions, the representations made by management do not make sense.",
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      "text": "Held True as Basis For Calculation: FY2018 Q3\nRevenue figures and enrollment growth rates as per TAL\nTotal Peiyou was 72.9% of revenue\nTotal Peiyou enrollments grew 91.7% YoY\nPeiyou online's discount to Peiyou offline was 42.9%\nPeiyou offline ASP grew 6% YoY",
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      "text": "Peiyou offline revenue growth: 6.9%",
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      "text": "Method 4: Trying to square the circle",
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      "text": "In attempting to reconcile TAL's FY2018 Q3 statements as best as possible, we stretched the values of two data points to come up with a workable variant that approximately matches TAL's representations while producing a modicum of Peiyou offline revenue and enrollment growth.",
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      "text": "FY2018 Q4: Decreased Disclosure\nAs noted in the previous report, we believe that in response to the common size Peiyou model we sent to TAL investor relations (prior to the Q4 call), TAL ceased disclosing Peiyou online's ASP discount.",
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      "text": "Check revenue growth | Q1 | Q2 | 2018 Q3\nCheck small classes | | | TRUE\nCheck Peiyou | | | TRUE\nPeiyou offline revenue growth per model | | | 6.9%",
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