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  "documentTitle": "TAL Education Group (TAL)",
  "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters",
  "authorName": "Carson C. Block",
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  "presentationDate": "2018-07-25 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide uses a 'check' methodology to validate company claims against derived models, highlighting inconsistencies in FY2018 Q3 data.",
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      "text": "A FY2018 Q3 offline revenue decline of -3.5% once again contravenes the implication of “healthy” growth.",
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      "text": "Peiyou offline enrollment growth: -10.2%",
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      "text": "Held True as Basis For Calculation: FY2018 Q3 Revenue figures and ASP growth rates as per TAL. Total Peiyou was 72.9% of revenue. Total Peiyou enrollments grew 91.7% YoY. Peiyou online's discount to Peiyou offline was 40%. Peiyou offline ASP grew 7.5% YoY",
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      "text": "Peiyou offline enrollments shrank by 11.2%. Total small-class ASPs would need to have increased significantly more than disclosed... This does not reconcile with TAL's claim of a 15.3% total small-class ASP decline for the quarter.",
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      "text": "Method 3: Assuming FY2016 to FY2018 revenue figures and ASP growth rates for TAL's 3 business units are accurate, as is FY2018 Q3 Peiyou offline 'high single digit' ASP growth",
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      "text": "A FY2018 Q3 offline revenue decline of -3.5% once again contravenes the implication of 'healthy' growth.",
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      "text": "If we take TAL's statements about historical revenue and ASP growth for small class, one-on-one, and Xueersi.com to be true and compute enrollment based on those, then we get negative revenue growth for Peiyou offline in FY2018 Q3...",
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      "text": "Under all high single digit ASP growth conditions, FY2018 Q3 Peiyou offline enrollment also shrank.",
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