{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-835a69513742",
  "docSlug": "c47ae4d76596",
  "documentTitle": "China Huishan Dairy Holdings (6863 HK)",
  "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters",
  "authorName": "Carson C. Block",
  "documentKindSlug": "research-note",
  "documentKindLabel": "Research note",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2016-12-16 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 8,
  "pageCount": 47,
  "prevPage": 7,
  "nextPage": 9,
  "slideType": "expose_contradiction",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "balanced",
  "nDataPoints": 7,
  "notes": "This is a text-heavy research note page from a Muddy Waters short report on Huishan Dairy.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "paragraph",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 0.9,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-835a69513742/8",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-835a69513742",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-835a69513742.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-835a69513742#slide-8",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "The ratio of reported alfalfa production to herd size belies Huishan’s claims of self-sufficiency.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87f4-f6b4b4c547b9",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.071,
        "w": 0.772,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.148
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "The ratio of reported alfalfa production to herd size belies Huishan’s claims of self-sufficiency. Since the IPO, the growth rates of supply and demand have diverged markedly. While the reported number of milkable cows doubled and the number of calves nearly tripled over the past four years, annual production and acreage under cultivation failed to keep pace.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "bfafddcf-0fb8-45c6-840a-7f29c753ba5e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.125,
        "w": 0.772,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.233
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "A calculation of alfalfa available for consumption on a per head basis (based on the Company’s production, surplus, and calf and milkable cow herd size numbers) indicates that from FY13, the available quantity of self-produced alfalfa for milkable cows (kg/day) declined each year. The available ration of self-grown alfalfa declined year-on-year by about 9% in FY14, 24% in FY15, and 53% in FY16. As the following chart shows, Huishan’s reported 2015 (FY16) alfalfa production is down 25% on an absolute basis from FY13, and declined every year on a per head of milkable cow basis since its IPO.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "cda232e7-3ad2-49a4-8ff2-d4654d6fe643",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.035,
        "w": 0.772,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.094
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "flooding in summer 2013, which caused an estimated crop loss of RMB 40 million.21 In summer 2014, the alfalfa farms reportedly suffered debilitating drought, again impacting production.22",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "d9279ff1-b699-460a-a683-631b97a464a8",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.035,
        "w": 0.772,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.883
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "21 Investigative report from 2014 on Huishan. Another investor commissioned this fieldwork and provided the report Muddy Waters Capital.\n22 Huishan FY15 Annual Report, p. 13.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "7f5e0c9b-a3b8-45f8-a694-8a3d98dc8e41",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 20,
      "from": 6,
      "beatId": "2bac2cc3-a51c-491f-82ab-fd7af7c67a46",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "The Struggle",
      "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle",
      "evidence": "The report presents various contradictions in Huishan's financial reporting and operations",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Development",
      "parentBeatSlug": "development"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 10,
      "from": 4,
      "name": "Pattern Hunter",
      "slug": "02-pattern-hunter",
      "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong",
      "matchId": "7ba0ec3e-baf8-47ec-93e3-665cdbf33e67",
      "evidence": "The report presents data contradicting Huishan's alfalfa self-sufficiency claims",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "Is Huishan's alfalfa self-sufficiency claim credible?",
      "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion",
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}