{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-835a69513742",
  "docSlug": "c47ae4d76596",
  "documentTitle": "China Huishan Dairy Holdings (6863 HK)",
  "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters",
  "authorName": "Carson C. Block",
  "documentKindSlug": "research-note",
  "documentKindLabel": "Research note",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2016-12-16 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 16,
  "pageCount": 47,
  "prevPage": 15,
  "nextPage": 17,
  "slideType": "expose_contradiction",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 8,
  "notes": "The slide uses expert testimony and environmental impact reports to challenge the company's reported CapEx figures.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "paragraph",
    "comparison_table",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 0.95,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-835a69513742/16",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-835a69513742",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-835a69513742.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-835a69513742#slide-16",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Based on our estimated reported dairy farm construction costs, these estimates suggest that since going public, Huishan has overstated average dairy farm CapEx by one third (~RMB 29 million) to over one half (~RMB 54 million).",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-70f2-7016-81d9-8d1bbc0a5a90",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "CapEx per farm: RMB 29 million",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-70f2-7016-81d9-93f015cc68c1",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.2,
        "w": 0.8,
        "x": 0.1,
        "y": 0.15
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "We consulted two China dairy farm experts... Expert A opined that the maximum Huishan spent per milking farm was only likely RMB 60 million... Expert B opined that the maximum per such farm was likely only RMB 35 million.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "2fd1b835-85f7-4d8b-82ae-700629a9260d",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.2,
        "w": 0.8,
        "x": 0.1,
        "y": 0.55
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "These estimates are company-favorable... Dengshipu’s total investment... is RMB 99.9 million. Its design capacity is 6,590 head.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "a0d70de8-0874-4f1b-8864-5edf83fbc264",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.8,
        "x": 0.1,
        "y": 0.88
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "31 To maintain the objectivity of the experts... 32 See for example, “A Grass to Glass Journey” Investor Tour...",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c9b6cc98-47fe-4fc9-9c67-4f77c9cf3f6b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.76,
        "x": 0.12,
        "y": 0.44
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Low Quality: RMB 14,000 / head; Medium Quality: RMB 21,000 / head; High Quality: RMB 30,000 / head",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "1458a3b9-4ae3-4952-8ec9-cf357736bdae",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.8,
        "x": 0.1,
        "y": 0.08
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "We conclude that Huishan’s real spend per dairy farm is substantially lower than our estimates of its reported spend.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "action-title",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "a19a612c-5f3e-4841-8db1-bf631426ab0e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "fraud-exposure",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "3285ed70-16d0-47e6-88de-d963ef81e639",
      "evidence": "The slide systematically compares reported company figures against independent expert estimates to identify overstatement.",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 20,
      "from": 6,
      "beatId": "2bac2cc3-a51c-491f-82ab-fd7af7c67a46",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "The Struggle",
      "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle",
      "evidence": "The report presents various contradictions in Huishan's financial reporting and operations",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Development",
      "parentBeatSlug": "development"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}