{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-66207923d83d", "docSlug": "e203d40c628e", "documentTitle": "Groupe Casino (CO)", "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters", "authorName": "Carson C. Block", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2016-03-08 00:00:00", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "pageNumber": 7, "pageCount": 14, "prevPage": 6, "nextPage": 8, "slideType": "research-note", "function": "expose_contradiction", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide uses a forensic linguistics approach to analyze corporate communication, specifically looking for non-answer statements and referral statements.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.95, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-66207923d83d/7", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-66207923d83d", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-66207923d83d.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-66207923d83d#slide-7", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Giscard d'Estaing's response offers three indicators of deception. First, his remarks provide what is essentially a combination of a non-answer statement and a referral statement (1) in the phrase \"you know our business model.\"", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-5372-7340-8f8c-bef0d15027b0", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "The conclusions reached in this analysis are the independent opinions of [the former CIA polygrapher] and in no way or part constitute a buy or sell recommendation of the underlying security.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "902a530f-c915-4c2f-91cc-fbac63790d46", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Giscard d'Estaing's response offers three indicators of deception. First, his remarks provide what is essentially a combination of a non-answer statement and a referral statement (1) in the phrase \"you know our business model.\"", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "05bb4b78-15a0-4bea-b8fe-7aefa39dd5c0", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.42 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA Corporate Sales Call, Q4 2015 Date: January 14, 2016/7:30am GMT Analysis conducted by a former CIA polygrapher", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "6ff41e97-66ec-4400-98a9-bd34162ef473", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.14 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This analysis, which includes a collection of Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA’s earnings/sales calls and press releases, reveals multiple clusters of behaviors associated with deception.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "98a35c85-cb09-47e3-a3fe-0e8e65255163", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.49 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "And the second one on your guidance for French EBIT in 2016, I know it's a sales conference call but you give some guidance on earnings in France next year. So I have an easy question, how can you split the improvement between purchasing and OpEx efficiency? Thank you.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "pull-quote", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "3aa000dc-f62b-4fad-bea9-905a0c881bf3", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.6 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "On your question on the French EBIT, you know our business model. You see that when you have a ....operational leverage generated by good volume growth you get technically an improvement.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "pull-quote", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "d0709579-f12c-4075-b369-9e0d0d14c68a", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"And the second one on your guidance for French EBIT in 2016, I know it's a sales conference call but you give some guidance on earnings in France next year. So I have an easy question, how can you split the improvement between purchasing and OpEx efficiency? Thank you.\" — Cedric Lecasble, Raymond James; \"On your question on the French EBIT, you know our business model. You see that when you have a ....operational leverage generated by good volume growth you get technically an improvement.\" — Antoine Giscard d'Estaing, Casino CFO", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-5372-7340-8f8c-c042ce8306c7", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.25, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Credibility Assessment: Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "bdcbe17d-96b5-4901-b666-23d9292843a8", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "fraud-exposure", "slug": null, "matchId": "2e1dc8d0-aadf-4584-ac99-8948de559d99", "evidence": "Analysis of linguistic indicators of deception in corporate transcripts", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 10, "from": 6, "beatId": "cc8b431d-e28f-4c77-bb0a-75521830d79d", "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster", "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster", "beatName": "The Struggle", "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "evidence": "Analysis of contradictions and deceptive language", "position": 1, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Development", "parentBeatSlug": "development" } ], "loops": [ { "to": 10, "from": 5, "name": "The Reveal", "slug": "05-the-reveal", "bestFor": "Product launches, strategic pivots, unexpected findings", "matchId": "28eda669-6c74-4cc1-89a3-978db93816e5", "evidence": "Multiple instances of expose_contradiction slides", "position": 0, "objective": "Reveal contradictions in Casino's statements", "structure": "Setup the Question -> Build Suspense -> The Big Reveal", "confidence": 0.7, "description": "Build mystery and anticipation, then deliver a surprising or powerful conclusion" }, { "to": 14, "from": 2, "name": "Cost Of Inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "matchId": "310a99e5-fe49-45ac-b2b2-bb08c4f953e0", "evidence": "Implications of governance problems and aggressive accounting", "position": 1, "objective": "Highlight consequences of ignoring these issues", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "confidence": 0.6, "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }