{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-1aee342c3a73",
  "docSlug": "10dc4f9f3e31",
  "documentTitle": "American Tower (AMT)",
  "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters",
  "authorName": "Carson C. Block",
  "documentKindSlug": "research-note",
  "documentKindLabel": "Research note",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2013-07-17 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 47,
  "pageCount": 118,
  "prevPage": 46,
  "nextPage": 48,
  "slideType": "thesis_headline",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 1,
  "notes": "Uses historical analogy to argue against the current investment thesis for AMT (American Tower).",
  "elementsJson": [
    "paragraph",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-1aee342c3a73/47",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-1aee342c3a73",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-1aee342c3a73.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-1aee342c3a73#slide-47",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "CELLULAR TOWERS ARE SOON TO BECOME THE MOST EXPENSIVE OPTION OF LAST RESORT; THE HALCYON DAYS ARE OVER.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-e6ef-7018-b1f3-0c13a4e99cea",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.72,
        "x": 0.14,
        "y": 0.14
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "ATL's assets in rural Germany have low growth prospects but yet there is a risk of carrier consolidation. There does not appear to be any apparent reason for this acquisition and it appears to be expansion for expansion sake.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "15fec860-0629-4dfb-b118-940b48c1cee8",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.07,
        "w": 0.72,
        "x": 0.14,
        "y": 0.43
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Internet traffic met those expectations, but demand for fiber barely grew because improved laser transmission and copper-bonding technologies increased the data capacity of a single strand of fiber to the point where it and existing distribution could absorb the increase in demand without much need for additional fiber.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "296b3b18-f9b0-457c-82be-f8bb8c983733",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.14,
        "w": 0.72,
        "x": 0.14,
        "y": 0.52
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "A similar phenomenon is happening right now in the tower industry. AMT is scouring the globe, purchasing tower assets from other operators. Given the projected increase in global demand for mobile data, investors are lauding its efforts. But are towers the only way to relieve the congestion of global data traffic. Just as in the past, there are other technologies out there that can increase capacity of the existing tower network, including Wi-Fi, smart cells, sectorization, antenna tilting, and improvements in spectrum efficiency and spectrum sharing. Investors seeking to profit from data demand growth by owning AMT will be disappointed.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "8e1cc469-c897-42de-88f0-2f48e27b92ea",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.07,
        "w": 0.72,
        "x": 0.14,
        "y": 0.35
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "In 1998, investors were bullish on fiber optic cable owners, because internet traffic was projected to grow 15x over the next five years. At the time, investors were drawn to the logical conclusion that a major increase in traffic meant the need for an equal amount of new fiber optic cable.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "99e64a83-e238-46fe-88fe-9d5c79b333cd",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.11,
        "w": 0.72,
        "x": 0.14,
        "y": 0.71
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "The ideas used to develop the wireless network were adapted from traditional telephony. The equipment carriers developed included analog, mechanical devices meant to interface with the traditional analog public switched telephone network (PSTN). One of these strategies developed including overlaying a honeycomb shaped grid over a map of the region in which the carrier was implementing service. They placed a transmission tower at the center of each 'cell' in the grid, hence the term 'cellular'. These towers relayed mobile user's signals as the user travelled from one transmission area to another.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c60a5506-200e-44ca-95d7-eeee7f9fd3b8",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.04,
        "w": 0.72,
        "x": 0.14,
        "y": 0.86
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "81, 82 footnotes",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "5fe9a4ce-747b-4e0f-a3c8-8ea89424cc05",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.07,
        "w": 0.72,
        "x": 0.14,
        "y": 0.23
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "CELLULAR TOWERS ARE SOON TO BECOME THE MOST EXPENSIVE OPTION OF LAST RESORT; THE HALCYON DAYS ARE OVER.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "93fb9647-8269-4338-a547-7e3936bf867e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.35,
        "x": 0.14,
        "y": 0.11
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Our View of ATL's Operations in Germany",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "a9f63719-cade-47c9-8243-554001d07b34",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.35,
        "x": 0.14,
        "y": 0.31
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Fiber and Cell Towers: Is History Repeating Itself?",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "subtitle",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "bda90c28-ea3f-43e2-9e64-dcd4323a1f1e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.25,
        "x": 0.14,
        "y": 0.68
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Wireless History and Development",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "subtitle",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "fcd332ea-dcf9-42b4-835f-d18c26c99697",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Audience Definition",
      "slug": "audience-definition",
      "agent": "Storyteller",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "c1a810eb-1eec-4e0e-955c-2803e281fb9b",
      "evidence": "The slide mentions 'our view of ATL's operations in Germany', indicating that the content is tailored to a specific audience.",
      "confidence": 0.7
    },
    {
      "name": "Thesis archetype",
      "slug": "thesis-archetype",
      "agent": null,
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "540db7d4-51aa-4d16-b293-3d31846999b0",
      "evidence": "The slide presents a clear and concise thesis statement about the tower industry, indicating a thesis archetype.",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "argument-from-analogy",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "2298c032-fd1b-4db2-9cc7-ffb8a5eba637",
      "evidence": "Compares current tower industry investment to 1998 fiber optic bubble.",
      "confidence": 1
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 64,
      "from": 41,
      "beatId": "830da618-df2d-4efb-b4ba-f929551b75d8",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "The Victory",
      "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory",
      "evidence": "The document presents a conclusion and key takeaways",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Turn",
      "parentBeatSlug": "turn"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}