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  "documentTitle": "Olam International Ltd. (SGX:O32)",
  "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters",
  "authorName": "Carson Block",
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  "presentationDate": "2012-11-27 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The chart shows a cash burn of S$1.6 billion and a requirement for S$4.6 billion in refinancing.",
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      "text": "However, the conservative projections were not enough to keep the model from projecting a financial disaster awaiting Olam in the next twelve months if it cannot raise or refinance S$4.6 billion.",
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      "text": "Waterfall chart showing cash flow components from Q1 2013 ending balance to forward 12M requirements.",
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      "text": "cash burn: S$4.6 billion",
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      "text": "However, the conservative projections were not enough to keep the model from projecting a financial disaster awaiting Olam in the next twelve months if it cannot raise or refinance S$4.6 billion. Below is our forecast of the current debt maturity schedule:",
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      "text": "We also estimated sales revenue per MT assuming QoQ growth of 0.75%, which was more generous than nearly all of the bullish analysts. The blended growth rate for total revenue was 11.0%, and we assumed that COGS would decline to 81.0% of revenue going forward, an improvement of 71 basis points over FY2012. We kept other figures, such as sales and logistics constant relative to volume and / or revenue; calculated depreciation based off of a standard schedule; assumed no gains or losses on derivatives; and assumed a 5.0% year-over-year increase in Other Income for each quarter, with S$9.4 million / quarter in income from jointly controlled entities (the average of the past eight quarters). Our FY2013 revenue estimate comes in at S$22.9 billion, S$2.3 billion higher than the Bloomberg consensus figure.",
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      "text": "The assumptions we use in our model are conservative. We arrived at a twelve-month operating cash burn of S$1.6 billion by calculating revenue based off of sales volume for each product group, with a blended YoY growth of 35.0% over the next twelve months (beginning with Q2 2013).",
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