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  "documentTitle": "Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (HMHC)",
  "authorId": "27_Engine_Capital",
  "authorName": "Engine Capital",
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  "presentationDate": "2022-03-22 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide uses a 'before-after' comparison of financial models to expose management's lack of credibility.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "The $(50) million of Q4 Adj. EBITDA is inconsistent with history and the improved operations of the business",
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      "text": "Adjusted EBITDA: $74 million",
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      "text": "Engine's Perspective: The initial forecast was prepared in November 2021... The $(50) million of Q4 Adj. EBITDA is inconsistent with history... Initial forecast implied a very aggressive 38% EBITDA growth... We suspect that most private equity buyers decided to pass... Barely two months later... the company generated Q4 2021 Adj. EBITDA of $24 million... We also struggle to understand why in barely two months, the long-term forecast has changed so dramatically",
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      "text": "Source: Company's Schedule 14D-9, filed on March 7, 2022.",
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      "text": "HMHC Initial Forecast (November 2021) vs HMHC Revised Forecast (January 2022) financial tables",
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      "text": "The initial forecast lacked credibility and scared potential buyers away",
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      "text": "The offer is a result of a flawed sales process",
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