{
  "docId": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dd-a5909e13931f",
  "docSlug": "2e07db064f61",
  "documentTitle": "Multiple REIT subsectors (urban office, retail, business hotels, movie theaters)",
  "authorId": "26_Land_and_Buildings",
  "authorName": "Jonathan Litt",
  "documentKindSlug": "research-note",
  "documentKindLabel": "Research note",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "activist_investor",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Activist investor",
  "presentationDate": "2020-12-01 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 1,
  "pageCount": 5,
  "prevPage": null,
  "nextPage": 2,
  "slideType": "thesis_headline",
  "function": "frame_situation",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 1,
  "notes": "The slide uses a 'Vaccine Mirage' metaphor to warn investors against mistaking temporary recovery for long-term value.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "logo_grid",
    "headline_text",
    "subtitle_text",
    "paragraph",
    "comparison_table"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/zH8bqznAswD00klwtPeZS5YxFZMgOSHMshlii2j1SSA/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy8yZTA3ZGIwNjRmNjEvcDAwMS5wbmc",
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dd-a5909e13931f/1",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dd-a5909e13931f",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dd-a5909e13931f.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dd-a5909e13931f#slide-1",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Clear losers will likely see a \"Vaccine Mirage\" from pent-up demand before fundamentals and shares roll over",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-f5d0-745c-bec0-19ac99d2b634",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.65,
        "w": 0.35,
        "x": 0.1,
        "y": 0.3
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "The human impact of COVID-19 as it has swept around the world has been nothing short of tragic. Unfortunately, the capital markets wait for no one and nothing. Market participants have been forced to grapple with the existential scope of the virus...",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "98f177d5-f480-40a6-bb40-55ecfd006896",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.8,
        "x": 0.1,
        "y": 0.18
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Land & Buildings believes pent-up demand in 2021 will create a Vaccine Mirage obscuring the ultimate winners and losers in real estate",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "f74627cf-b9e1-4b56-8b08-96431036d737",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "Amazon's CFO recently commented that the company saved $1 billion on travel in 2020, and while he expects travel to return, it will be at a much lower level.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Authority citation",
      "toolSlug": "authority-citation",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-f5d0-745c-bec0-1c8a7890d20f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.45,
        "x": 0.47,
        "y": 0.3
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Clear losers will likely see a 'Vaccine Mirage' from pent-up demand before fundamentals and shares roll over. Urban Office: Employees will return to office in 2021, but WFH is here to stay and value is permanently impaired. Retail: Malls may see mini traffic boom temporarily, but adoption of e-commerce has accelerated. Business Hotels: Backlog of business trips will occur in 2021, but the Zoom affect has forever reduced business travel. Movie Theaters: Simultaneous theater and streaming release likely to lead to substantial theater closures.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "3e73ce66-65a2-4f6d-aad4-3b35ad371866",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.3,
        "x": 0.35,
        "y": 0.14
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "A Vaccine Mirage",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "7fa91123-ea20-4b44-887f-88037f8d1628",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.5,
        "x": 0.25,
        "y": 0.08
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "LANDandBUILDINGS",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "fe4d98c1-e3a5-44c0-8bc9-fc4ed0be4910",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "metaphor-analogy",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "3f7bccca-377e-46a6-ac6a-f1ac79f06d29",
      "evidence": "The slide uses the 'Vaccine Mirage' as a central metaphor to explain market behavior.",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 1,
      "from": 1,
      "beatId": "d19e3f8b-d176-4e5f-ad42-dcf6084e743d",
      "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution",
      "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution",
      "beatName": "Problem (Identify pain)",
      "beatSlug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain",
      "evidence": "The thesis headline identifies the problem of the Vaccine Mirage.",
      "position": 0,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Complication",
      "parentBeatSlug": "complication"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 5,
      "from": 1,
      "name": "Cost Of Inaction",
      "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction",
      "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation",
      "matchId": "ae081f89-adfe-4028-8322-09ca0216e262",
      "evidence": "The document implies that inaction or incorrect action could lead to significant losses in the real estate market.",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "To highlight the cost of inaction in the face of the Vaccine Mirage",
      "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point",
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/2gn3Gzovc8YuoWx5lJd3ZYjxoosh1kNOPx-TYGrrPgU/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy8yZTA3ZGIwNjRmNjEvcDAwMS5qcGc",
  "thumbSrc": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/FDsucMOrzxm2zKQ4liaTVxyRugfYLYqoRirfvHPr76s/rs:fit:480:480:0/q:78/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy8yZTA3ZGIwNjRmNjEvcDAwMS5wbmc",
  "thumbSrcAlt": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/CJ2IgGFNliNZYYYc0_PgF0dGSGee11-ZOpk8ceGXVlE/rs:fit:480:480:0/q:78/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy8yZTA3ZGIwNjRmNjEvcDAwMS5qcGc"
}