{ "docId": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dc-d7c9fce4ff84", "docSlug": "2bee745d494a", "documentTitle": "BP plc (BP)", "authorId": "23_Bluebell_Capital", "authorName": "Giuseppe Bivona and Marco Taricco", "documentKindSlug": "shareholder-letter", "documentKindLabel": "Shareholder letter", "sourceTypeSlug": "activist_investor", "sourceTypeLabel": "Activist investor", "presentationDate": "2023-10-04 00:00:00", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.7070707, "pageNumber": 6, "pageCount": 30, "prevPage": 5, "nextPage": 7, "slideType": "appendix_disclosure", "function": "cite_precedent", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 6, "notes": "The slide uses external citations to argue that current climate transition goals are unlikely to be met.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "footnote" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.9, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dc-d7c9fce4ff84/6", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dc-d7c9fce4ff84", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dc-d7c9fce4ff84.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dc-d7c9fce4ff84#slide-6", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "This rapid transition remains a massive challenge and appears increasingly unlikely.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d0-745c-bea8-edbbf9a0a526", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.1 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In a report published in September 2023, BCG concluded that “the adoption of coal occurred over roughly five decades, and the shift from coal to oil took more than three decades. To limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, we must ramp up renewables and other low-carbon solutions at warp speed. These energy sources must match the maximum shares held by coal (55%) and oil (41%) roughly three times as fast as those commodities did and ultimately should account for most primary energy by 2050-up to 70% in IEA’s Net Zero Emissions scenario. This rapid transition remains a massive challenge and appears increasingly unlikely”7.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "08ceca39-467a-424e-9548-44dd319f4efa", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Global CO2 emissions have continued to rise steadily, reaching a record level of 36.8 Gt CO28 in 2022, roughly double the emission level recorded in 1979, which was the year of the first World Climate Conference which recognized the ‘urgent necessity’ to foresee and prevent potential man-made changes in climate that might be averse to the well-being of humanity.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "7d1af2dd-ca11-4b0d-b92d-ac11d3de5e68", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.3, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.5 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "According to latest available IAE figures9, assuming that all national net-zero emissions pledges are realised in full and on time, global CO2 emissions are forecast to fall to 31.5 Gt in 2030 and to 12.4 Gt in 2050, far from sufficient 14% and 66% falls vs. 2022 levels. In the September 2023, IAE did not provide a granular update of those figures other than to say that “despite the progress in recent years, national commitments to reduce emissions collectively fall short of what is required by 2030 to bring global emissions down to a level in line with achieving net zero emissions by 2050. In addition, the various commitments are not yet underpinned by sufficiently strong and comprehensive policies to give confidence that they will be successfully delivered” (IAE, September 2023)10.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "fcb24609-0caa-457e-a506-754b7640e5ac", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"the adoption of coal occurred over roughly five decades, and the shift from coal to oil took more than three decades. To limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, we must ramp up renewables and other low-carbon solutions at warp speed. These energy sources must match the maximum shares held by coal (55%) and oil (41%) roughly three times as fast as those commodities did and ultimately should account for most primary energy by 2050-up to 70% in IEA's Net Zero Emissions scenario. This rapid transition remains a massive challenge and appears increasingly unlikely\" — BCG, A blueprint for the energy transition (September 2023). \"despite the progress in recent years, national commitments to reduce emissions collectively fall short of what is required by 2030 to bring global emissions down to a level in line with achieving net zero emissions by 2050. In addition, the various commitments are not yet underpinned by sufficiently strong and comprehensive policies to give confidence that they will be successfully delivered\" — IEA, Net-Zero Roadmap - A global pathway to keep the 1.5° C goal in reach (September 2023).", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d0-745c-bea8-f03568706b80", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.83 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "7 BCG, “A blueprint for the energy transition” (September 2023)\n8 source: IEA (2022)\n9 IEA, “World Energy Outlook 2022” (November 2022).\n10 IEA, “Net-Zero Roadmap - A global pathway to keep the 1.5° C goal in reach” (September 2023).", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "aebe5f6e-1b3c-42fc-b209-fe9f09f2a96c", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "authority-citation", "slug": null, "matchId": "7383f91b-8f5b-4e47-9ee1-6da9e1ca2cff", "evidence": "Citing BCG and IEA reports to support the argument that transition is unlikely.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 9, "from": 4, "beatId": "833148c7-b13a-4f4b-aeb4-8536c5cc31bd", "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution", "beatName": "Problem & Complication", "beatSlug": "consultants-gambit-problem-complication", "evidence": "The document presents a clear problem and complication", "position": 0, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Complication", "parentBeatSlug": "complication" }, { "to": 14, "from": 4, "beatId": "c02f659b-5eea-4a8c-b892-a11f455c4a3a", "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution", "beatName": "Interest", "beatSlug": "aida-interest", "evidence": "The document generates interest by presenting a clear critique of BP's strategy", "position": 3, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Complication", "parentBeatSlug": "complication" } ], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }