{
  "docId": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dc-52ab24c53815",
  "docSlug": "1dca9cf84925",
  "documentTitle": "Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)",
  "authorId": "15_Soroban",
  "authorName": "Eric Mandelblatt",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "activist_investor",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Activist investor",
  "presentationDate": "2023-02-22 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 23,
  "pageCount": 43,
  "prevPage": 22,
  "nextPage": 24,
  "slideType": "expose_contradiction",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 10,
  "notes": "The slide uses a 'Significantly BELOW' callout column to emphasize the gap between guidance and reality.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "paragraph",
    "bullet_list",
    "comparison_table",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dc-52ab24c53815/23",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dc-52ab24c53815",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dc-52ab24c53815.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dc-52ab24c53815#slide-23",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.94,
        "x": 0.03,
        "y": 0.12
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Compared to the investor day guidance from less than 2 years ago, investors are now expecting UNP to grow volumes at only one-third of guided levels and grow revenue at half of guided incremental margins",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "7f2d1475-e54f-421b-98d1-e2e90046fb0a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.94,
        "x": 0.03,
        "y": 0.3
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Current management no longer expresses confidence in achieving its long-term guidance in a timely manner",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "9711b31c-71f8-4099-859a-e83e5ac3c753",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.18,
        "w": 0.91,
        "x": 0.06,
        "y": 0.34
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "November 2022 conference: [on 55% OR target, which was supposed to be achieved in 2022] \"It's not going to be the goal for next year.\"\nJanuary 2023 earnings call: [on long-term targets from investor day] \"...it may be over a longer period of time that those actually come to fruition. ...the biggest opportunity is to improve that service product that from it drives out that excess cost when we think about our locomotive and our workforce productivity. That's job #1 right now...\"\nJanuary 2023 earnings call: [on 55% OR target, which no longer has a timeline despite initially guided for 2022] \"...to your 55 question, I mean you've heard us talk that, that is still our goal, and I'll reiterate that again. We have not put a new timeline on that because of all the things that you've heard us talk about here today in terms of the challenges that we're facing.\"",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "ad69a344-bb06-471b-aa6d-393368379a22",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.94,
        "x": 0.03,
        "y": 0.21
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Awful execution in 2022 combined with a long history of operational mismanagement have led to widespread skepticism of UNP's ability to achieve the key targets established in May 2021. Consensus estimates are significantly below for all key investor day targets",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "d83cdd68-8c0d-4950-80a5-c00a3e022652",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Operating Ratio: 55%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a18f-3c061aad319e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "It's not going to be the goal for next year. — November 2022 conference (regarding 55% OR target). ...it may be over a longer period of time that those actually come to fruition. ...the biggest opportunity is to improve that service product that from it drives out that excess cost when we think about our locomotive and our workforce productivity. That's job #1 right now... — January 2023 earnings call. ...to your 55 question, I mean you've heard us talk that, that is still our goal, and I'll reiterate that again. We have not put a new timeline on that because of all the things that you've heard us talk about here today in terms of the challenges that we're facing. — January 2023 earnings call.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Authority citation",
      "toolSlug": "authority-citation",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a18f-397c6133514d",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.35,
        "x": 0.03,
        "y": 0.96
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Bloomberg and Visible Alpha consensus estimates as of 2/22/2023.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c2ad005f-b4a6-4436-ba29-4d68a3e97f47",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.35,
        "w": 0.94,
        "x": 0.03,
        "y": 0.57
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Investor Day Long-Term Guidance (2021-24) vs Consensus Long-Term Estimates (2021-24) for Volume Growth, Incremental Margins, 2022 OR, 2024 OR, and EPS Growth.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "d8cab175-0fcf-4465-a994-53368bd94a6e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.06,
        "w": 0.6,
        "x": 0.03,
        "y": 0.03
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "No one, including UNP management, believes the May 2021 investor day guidance",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c61eec3b-6b73-46db-8f2b-db06dac10808",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "ceo-quote-contradiction",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "ff52b301-5b52-49ae-8b65-7424e6383d5d",
      "evidence": "Contrasting management quotes against original guidance targets.",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}