{
  "docId": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6db-cc9e849c681c",
  "docSlug": "d022b5102472",
  "documentTitle": "Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)",
  "authorId": "07_Marcato",
  "authorName": "Richard T. McGuire III",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "activist_investor",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Activist investor",
  "presentationDate": "2017-11-01 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 45,
  "pageCount": 59,
  "prevPage": 44,
  "nextPage": 46,
  "slideType": "expose_contradiction",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 12,
  "notes": "Uses a deductive logic flow to break down company guidance and isolate the impact of cost savings versus revenue growth.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "subtitle_text",
    "quote_block",
    "data_table",
    "callout_box",
    "callout_box",
    "callout_box",
    "callout_box"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6db-cc9e849c681c/45",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6db-cc9e849c681c",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6db-cc9e849c681c.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6db-cc9e849c681c#slide-45",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.33,
        "x": 0.63,
        "y": 0.7
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "This implies only ~$30m in EBIT improvement from cost savings",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "255f581e-fb8d-49ab-9bd7-e04ad8443e2a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.825
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Is Deckers “re-investing” ~$120m of the $150m in “savings”?",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "37e720b2-51ce-4da9-afbd-5e48239d3438",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.33,
        "x": 0.63,
        "y": 0.575
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "$63m of EBIT would be generated alone from future revenue growth at a 30% incremental margin",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "daccf67a-dfb8-4fd9-8049-9e32792f83aa",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.33,
        "x": 0.63,
        "y": 0.375
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Using Deckers' 2020 guidance of $2b in sales and a 13% EBIT margin, implied EBIT improvement is $94m -- slightly below Deckers' target of $100m",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "fb3609d1-42c9-450d-b114-1a91b843f326",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "EBIT improvement: $32m",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-3f3f-7598-93ef-ec04ceca4a03",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.12,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.18
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "“...we are pleased to share that $150 million announced cumulative savings will drive a $100 million improvement in operating profit for the fiscal year 2020 [relative to 2017]. With these savings, along with modest low single-digit revenue growth, we believe we can achieve an operating margin of 13% in fiscal year 2020.” – 5/25/17 FQ4 2017 earnings call",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "233449dd-d6db-4d6f-8af4-2ecd9179ffa1",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "“...we are pleased to share that $150 million announced cumulative savings will drive a $100 million improvement in operating profit for the fiscal year 2020 [relative to 2017]. With these savings, along with modest low single-digit revenue growth, we believe we can achieve an operating margin of 13% in fiscal year 2020.” — 5/25/17 FQ4 2017 earnings call",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Authority citation",
      "toolSlug": "authority-citation",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-3f3f-7598-93ef-eae3d5b05c0d",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.25,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.935
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Company filings, Marcato estimates",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "2c84574d-0800-4bba-9a3c-d72a681ce331",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.45,
        "w": 0.5,
        "x": 0.08,
        "y": 0.33
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Cost savings implied by company plan ($m) ... Implied change in EBIT due to cost saves $32",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "80fdaa3e-26a9-4864-9a84-b70784a3d4c1",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.75,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.05
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "DECKERS' CURRENT PROFIT IMPROVEMENT GOALS ARE MISLEADING",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "bba720c6-2e32-4c9e-931d-f3eb2f553354",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "fraud-exposure",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "6efa8697-8604-48d8-9378-f9f70ec8cf84",
      "evidence": "Uses company data to expose a contradiction between stated goals and implied financial reality.",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 50,
      "from": 40,
      "beatId": "df68090d-ff55-429e-980f-3ff0c4b22687",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "Solution (Provide relief)",
      "beatSlug": "problem-agitate-solution-solution-provide-relief",
      "evidence": "The document presents a clear solution and provides relief by highlighting the potential benefits of a change in leadership and strategy.",
      "position": 4,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Resolution",
      "parentBeatSlug": "resolution"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}