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  "documentTitle": "Assured Guaranty (AGO)",
  "authorId": "04_Greenlight_Capital",
  "authorName": "David Einhorn",
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  "presentationDate": "2018-04-23 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide contrasts market pricing with fiscal plan assumptions to quantify financial exposure.",
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      "text": "On this basis, the principal loss to AGO appears to be about $2.8 billion.",
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      "text": "Implied Loss: $2,768",
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      "text": "On this basis, the principal loss to AGO appears to be about $2.8 billion.",
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      "text": "AGO is also on the hook for timely interest payments on much of this debt, so its loss would be even higher.",
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      "text": "Here is a mark to market valuation of AGO's exposure aggregated in two buckets – the first one is included in the fiscal plan, while the second one is everything else. You can see the market is pricing in a better recovery than the fiscal plan suggests.",
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      "text": "Source: AGO Q4 2017 financial supplement; pricing from Bloomberg LP retrieved April 19, 2018; and Greenlight calculations.",
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      "text": "Tax-supported debt: 3,380 / 0.40 / 1,354 / 2,026. Other-revenue supported debt: 1,586 / 0.53 / 844 / 742. Total: 4,966 / 0.44 / 2,198 / 2,768.",
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      "text": "AGO's current problem",
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