{
  "docId": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-fb39d1a50dfd",
  "docSlug": "41a3bf6001ae",
  "documentTitle": "CONSOL Energy (CNX)",
  "authorId": "04_Greenlight_Capital",
  "authorName": "David Einhorn",
  "documentKindSlug": "conference-presentation",
  "documentKindLabel": "Conference presentation",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "activist_investor",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Activist investor",
  "presentationDate": "2015-11-16 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 26,
  "pageCount": 107,
  "prevPage": 25,
  "nextPage": 27,
  "slideType": "valuation_table",
  "function": "show_valuation_bridge",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 5,
  "notes": "The slide provides a high-level summary of a DCF model, including reserve volume, pricing, costs, capex, and WACC, resulting in a $3 billion valuation.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "bullet_list",
    "callout_box",
    "paragraph",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-fb39d1a50dfd/26",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-fb39d1a50dfd",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-fb39d1a50dfd.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-fb39d1a50dfd#slide-26",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.06,
        "w": 0.52,
        "x": 0.24,
        "y": 0.41
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Discounted Cash Flow Value = $3 billion",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "cc6d6ebe-147c-4f01-87c3-4aea6b0b04bc",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.55,
        "x": 0.12,
        "y": 0.15
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "760 million tons of reserve produced over 30 years\nCoal prices rise to $55 per ton in 2024\nOperating costs stable from 2016 onward\nCapex of $6 per ton\nCorporate WACC of 8.4%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "30805af7-02cf-4c12-9fc4-cf5148224dee",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Discounted Cash Flow Value: $3 billion",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-fb95-7708-ad5b-2ddc39223b87",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.76,
        "x": 0.12,
        "y": 0.49
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "We think that the best way to value a long lasting pile of reserves of any type is with a discounted cash flow analysis. Here, the DCF reflects the value of the entire thermal reserve base down to the full runoff. We will release the full DCF later this week, but the bottom line is the thermal coal business is worth $3 billion. As a cross check, that is about 11x depressed EBITDA less Capex, and less than four dollars per ton of reserves.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "05de0ead-7030-4598-a3ea-7e602cec1664",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.76,
        "x": 0.12,
        "y": 0.65
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Greenlight estimate. Please refer to accompanying thermal coal discounted cash flow model for details and assumptions.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "66677825-4868-4745-b874-291b91b88a82",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.46,
        "x": 0.27,
        "y": 0.08
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Thermal coal DCF",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "032ad709-643a-43c7-a5e3-8abf4135b934",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Valuation: DCF",
      "slug": "dcf",
      "agent": "architect",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "acc83b0b-7099-4fe2-8640-cf2f753729fb",
      "evidence": "The slide explicitly mentions 'discounted cash flow analysis' and 'DCF reflects the value of the entire thermal reserve base'.",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "valuation_model",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "bd5e3cbc-40af-4c66-be8c-d8cc1ab269c1",
      "evidence": "DCF analysis",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}