{
  "docId": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab",
  "docSlug": "d705389771f5",
  "documentTitle": "athenahealth, Inc. (ATHN)",
  "authorId": "04_Greenlight_Capital",
  "authorName": "David Einhorn",
  "documentKindSlug": "conference-presentation",
  "documentKindLabel": "Conference presentation",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "activist_investor",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Activist investor",
  "presentationDate": "2014-05-05 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 35,
  "pageCount": 66,
  "prevPage": 34,
  "nextPage": 36,
  "slideType": "comparison_table",
  "function": "analyze_data",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 3,
  "notes": "The slide argues that the 30% margin forecast is implausible compared to the 13% or 27.5% projections.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "line_chart",
    "paragraph",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab/35",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab#slide-35",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "The low operating leverage makes the EBIT ramp to 13% by the end of the decade plausible. But, the proposed ramp to 30% by the end of 2030 is not.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-3f40-73bb-a608-ad64b355fdce",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.35,
        "w": 0.8,
        "x": 0.1,
        "y": 0.16
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Line chart showing MS Base Case, MS Bear Case, and Adjusted EBIT margin from 2014 to 2030.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "line",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "b4e249e6-29fc-4ebe-ae66-a020a44ae84a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "EBIT margin: 30%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-3f40-73bb-a608-b37e3859ce6b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.8,
        "x": 0.1,
        "y": 0.55
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "So, now let's go back to Morgan Stanley's margin estimates. The low operating leverage makes the EBIT ramp to 13% by the end of the decade plausible. But, the proposed ramp to 30% by the end of 2030 is not.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "3a7ab69b-80e0-4eef-a359-f514e0f3eebc",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.06,
        "w": 0.8,
        "x": 0.1,
        "y": 0.65
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "By the way, in the Morgan Stanley \"bear\" case that yields an $82 valuation, they assume EBIT margin ramps to only 27.5%. That is what passes for conservatism during a bubble.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "8af88d15-1102-4ce9-94b3-6d89edd8038e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.06,
        "w": 0.8,
        "x": 0.1,
        "y": 0.73
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Morgan Stanley & Co. estimates as provided to Greenlight in April 2014 and Greenlight calculated adjustments to Morgan Stanley & Co. estimates.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "e31c738f-61de-476b-a76b-4ae4d4a4acbb",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.04,
        "w": 0.52,
        "x": 0.24,
        "y": 0.1
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Adjusted margin forecast",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "49d782ba-8c5c-4ac0-83b8-866f9139c646",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 66,
      "from": 25,
      "beatId": "6da4308a-36de-4167-a2e6-e90fac6c4e36",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "The Victory (Alternative perspective)",
      "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory",
      "evidence": "Slides 25-66 present an alternative perspective on athenahealth's valuation and growth prospects",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Turn",
      "parentBeatSlug": "turn"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 36,
      "from": 29,
      "name": "Iceberg",
      "slug": "10-iceberg",
      "bestFor": "Consulting, complex problem solving, organizational change",
      "matchId": "442661b4-5ee0-435d-bc70-8fbdde4d51dc",
      "evidence": "Slides 29-36 discuss the unsupported assumptions and flawed valuation",
      "position": 2,
      "objective": "Expose the unsupported assumptions driving the valuation",
      "structure": "The Symptom (Visible) -> The System (Hidden) -> The Root Cause",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Reveal that the visible problem is merely a symptom of a deeper root cause"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}