{
  "docId": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-e7b68bedf507",
  "docSlug": "42871e2cc2e7",
  "documentTitle": "Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR)",
  "authorId": "04_Greenlight_Capital",
  "authorName": "David Einhorn",
  "documentKindSlug": "conference-presentation",
  "documentKindLabel": "Conference presentation",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "activist_investor",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Activist investor",
  "presentationDate": "2011-10-17 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 17,
  "pageCount": 110,
  "prevPage": 16,
  "nextPage": 18,
  "slideType": "revenue_buildup",
  "function": "quantify_opportunity",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 10,
  "notes": "The slide uses a standard revenue/profit buildup framework to justify a valuation thesis.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "bullet_list",
    "data_table",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-e7b68bedf507/17",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-e7b68bedf507",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-e7b68bedf507.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-e7b68bedf507#slide-17",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "GMCR can earn $8-10 per share",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-fb96-7553-b1cd-d19fe30e6ff1",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "EPS: $9.00",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-fb96-7553-b1cd-d69c1b8de0ed",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.5,
        "x": 0.1,
        "y": 0.2
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "GMCR can earn $8-10 per share",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "2043e631-d9aa-4524-b1b9-8c59651efed7",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.85,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.92
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: SunTrust Robinson Humphrey research note published July 21, 2011. Assumes $30M interest expense, 38% tax rate, and 160M shares.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "7b45b747-5021-4115-8554-0d016f273659",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.6,
        "w": 0.7,
        "x": 0.15,
        "y": 0.27
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Target Market (Homes that brew 2+ cups/day) 64M; Keurig Share of Target Market 33%; Fully Penetrated Installed Brewer Base 21M; Average Daily K-cups Per Brewer 2.00; Days/Year 365; Annual K-cup Consumption 15,558M; Profit Per K-cup $0.15; Annual K-cup Profit (EBIT) $2,352M; Annual K-cup Profit (After Tax and Interest) $1,440M; Shares Outstanding 160M; Long Term EPS (At Home Sales) $9.00",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "04517279-20cd-45e5-b9a1-e9b5ba0dc705",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.07,
        "w": 0.29,
        "x": 0.1,
        "y": 0.07
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Bull Case",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "194e90a6-7c70-4cf0-83f8-c330fe89f874",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "revenue-buildup",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "e3806d0e-2a1e-486a-8a0d-2d0f498be4ec",
      "evidence": "The slide systematically breaks down market size, penetration, and unit economics to arrive at an EPS figure.",
      "confidence": 0.95
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 110,
      "from": 15,
      "name": "The Reveal",
      "slug": "05-the-reveal",
      "bestFor": "Product launches, strategic pivots, unexpected findings",
      "matchId": "3d366bd3-0742-4ca7-a1dd-2e8ed1e5341f",
      "evidence": "The presentation builds up to a conclusion that contradicts the bull case",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "Reveal the truth about GMCR's business",
      "structure": "Setup the Question -> Build Suspense -> The Big Reveal",
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "description": "Build mystery and anticipation, then deliver a surprising or powerful conclusion"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}