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  "docId": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6d9-fc4318e06f9b",
  "docSlug": "6ded4b1cfe2c",
  "documentTitle": "Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)",
  "authorId": "03_Starboard_Value",
  "authorName": "Starboard Value",
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  "presentationDate": "2019-03-18 00:00:00",
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  "slideType": "expose_contradiction",
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  "notes": "Uses a timeline visualization to highlight the gap between historical performance and future projections.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Assuming Celgene’s near-term launch products can generate $10.8 billion revenue by 2028, another 5, on average, blockbuster products would be needed to reach Bristol-Myers’ 2028 revenue base case. This means that Bristol-Myers is assuming that Celgene can produce, on average, 10 blockbuster drugs in 8 years...after only producing 3 in the last 15 years! Why should shareholders underwrite such aggressive assumptions and take on so much risk??",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "This means that Bristol-Myers is assuming that Celgene can produce, on average, 10 blockbuster drugs in 8 years...after only producing 3 in the last 15 years!",
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      "kind": "diagram",
      "text": "Timeline showing historical launches (2005, 2013, 2014) vs future projections (2020E-2028E)",
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      "text": "We find Bristol-Myers’ implied assumptions for the early-stage pipeline to be highly unrealistic.",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "In its base case, Bristol-Myers is assuming Celgene can generate blockbuster drugs at a pace completely out-of-line with historical performance, adding substantial risk to the deal.",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Public company filings, Bristol-Myers investor relations, Starboard estimates.",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Bristol-Myers needs Celgene’s pipeline to churn out blockbusters at an unprecedented rate",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Celgene Has Only Developed 3 Blockbusters In 15 Years, But Bristol-Myers’ Base Case Assumes, On Average, 10 Blockbusters in the Next 8 Years",
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