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  "documentTitle": "Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)",
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  "authorName": "Jeffrey C. Smith",
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  "presentationDate": "2019-02-28 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The chart highlights the 'patent cliff' risk, specifically focusing on the concentration of revenue loss in 2026.",
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      "text": "As shown in the chart below, it is common to see blockbuster drugs representing approximately 15-30% of total company revenue at LOE, but REVLIMID at 63% of revenue at LOE is essentially unheard of and poses tremendous risk.",
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      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Stacked bar chart showing revenue loss percentage by year for Bristol-Myers and Celgene",
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      "text": "revenue at risk: 45%",
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      "text": "Per the Company's S-4 filing, Bristol-Myers management is assuming Celgene can generate base-case, risk-adjusted revenues of nearly $19 billion by 2028. However, given the known patent cliff on Celgene's marketed products, we believe that over 90% of this revenue, or approximately $17 billion is expected to come from yet un-commercialized pipeline products.",
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      "text": "As shown in the chart below, it is common to see blockbuster drugs representing approximately 15-30% of total company revenue at LOE, but REVLIMID at 63% of revenue at LOE is essentially unheard of and poses tremendous risk.",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Furthermore, this may create additional pressure for the combined company to consummate another large transaction to fill the impending revenue hole, as the reality of full REVLIMID genericization comes into focus.",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "With only several weeks of full data room access, it appears Bristol-Myers estimated that Celgene will rebuild its entire current revenue base from its current pipeline despite several recent development miscues.",
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      "text": "Source: Company Filings. (1) Loss of exclusivity and patent expirations shown are for U.S., with the exception of REVLIMID.",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Loss of Exclusivity / Patent Expiration for Bristol + Celgene's Major Marketed Products",
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