{
  "docId": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6d9-7c1fa0494803",
  "docSlug": "2589cccda568",
  "documentTitle": "Phillips 66 (PSX)",
  "authorId": "02_Elliott_Management",
  "authorName": "John Pike and Mike Tomkins",
  "documentKindSlug": "shareholder-letter",
  "documentKindLabel": "Shareholder letter",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "activist_investor",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Activist investor",
  "presentationDate": "2023-11-29 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 4,
  "pageCount": 6,
  "prevPage": 3,
  "nextPage": 5,
  "slideType": "valuation_table",
  "function": "show_valuation_bridge",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 8,
  "notes": "Includes footnotes regarding methodology for capex and peer comparison.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "paragraph",
    "valuation_table",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6d9-7c1fa0494803/4",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6d9-7c1fa0494803",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6d9-7c1fa0494803.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6d9-7c1fa0494803#slide-4",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "If achieved, the $14 billion 2025E mid-cycle EBITDA target translates to $9 billion of free cash flow, which at a 10% free cash flow yield implies a >$205 share price.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-ee3c-76df-9659-d38ab40d4670",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "share price: $205.89",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-ee3c-76df-9659-db1cdd318de2",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.06,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.5
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "But while the Company's announced plan is admirable, investor skepticism about Phillips 66's ability to achieve these goals remains a weight on its stock price.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "16993994-0fab-4939-a9d9-c4cc53aa356f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.06,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.093
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "These are certainly the correct goals. If achieved, the $14 billion 2025E mid-cycle EBITDA target translates to $9 billion of free cash flow, which at a 10% free cash flow yield implies a >$205 share price.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "237aac4d-5e36-435f-a2ed-118a607e3c2a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "“remains an execution story” — BofA, October 2023; “[F]eedback from investors following [our] upgrade suggested they wanted to see PSX execute before giving them credit” — Cowen, August 2023.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Authority citation",
      "toolSlug": "authority-citation",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-ee3c-76df-9659-d7a6b7087462",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.82
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "As of November 27, 2023; Capex based on Company guidance... Based on Elliott's estimate of Valero's free cash flow...",
      "attrs": {
        "numbered": true
      },
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "e0a08943-0ed5-4f41-883e-10bb95a9857c",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.28,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.215
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Operating Cash Flow: 11,000; Capex: (2,000); Free Cash Flow: 9,000; Yield: 10%; Market Cap: 90,000; Shares: 437; Share Price: 205.89; Upside: 74%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "valuation",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "611eaead-7f96-4ce8-8527-5a8daf08853a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.764,
        "x": 0.118,
        "y": 0.215
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Phillips 66 Upside if 2025 Mid-Cycle EBITDA Target is Achieved",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "bc21b7a4-4d9c-43d0-a6a3-7ce816717410",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "valuation-bridge",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "1f1d024d-8812-4fed-bc71-e7213b390f43",
      "evidence": "Table calculates share price upside based on EBITDA targets and FCF yield",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 5,
      "from": 4,
      "beatId": "9214a6a4-0b35-4bac-a36a-36f0beeda231",
      "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution",
      "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution",
      "beatName": "Agitate (Make it worse)",
      "beatSlug": "problem-agitate-solution-agitate-make-it-worse",
      "evidence": "The document presents a potential downside and an alternative path",
      "position": 3,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Development",
      "parentBeatSlug": "development"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 5,
      "from": 4,
      "name": "Cost Of Inaction",
      "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction",
      "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation",
      "matchId": "1d2e69f4-ea64-4744-99fa-c31359a7b41b",
      "evidence": "The document presents a potential downside",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "What is the cost of inaction?",
      "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}