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  "documentTitle": "Phillips 66 (PSX)",
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      "text": "To avoid admitting a large miss, management has recently started saying that “to get to its mid-cycle EBITDA Phillips 66 needs adjusted gross margin of 14.50/bbl,(1) a level that even Valero (best-in-class operator) is not expected to achieve",
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      "text": "To avoid admitting a large miss, management has recently started saying that “to get to its mid-cycle EBITDA Phillips 66 needs adjusted gross margin of 14.50/bbl,” a level that even Valero (best-in-class operator) is not expected to achieve",
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      "text": "Phillips 66 & Valero Refining Gross Margin per Barrel ($/bbl)",
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      "text": "Refining Gross Margin per Barrel: $10.56",
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      "text": "The refining margin environment does not explain Phillips 66's inability to hit its targets, Consensus estimates for 2026 assume the same 2012-2019 average crack that Phillips 66 used in its original mid-cycle goals.",
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      "text": "[We] designed our mid-cycle methodology around the 2012-2019-time frame. You had cycles of strong margins and weak margins during that period of time.",
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      "text": "Q: [When] you look at the differences... between Wall Street and that $14 billion, where do you think the biggest delta still are? Is it chems? Is it refining? A: “The biggest delta is in refining and well below mid-cycle refining environments baked into the '25, '26 outlook.”",
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      "text": "\"[We] designed our mid-cycle methodology around the 2012-to-2019 time frame. You had cycles of strong margins and weak margins during that period of time.\" — Phillips 66 Investor Relations, March 14, 2024; \"The biggest delta is in refining and well below mid-cycle refining environments baked into the '25, '26 outlook.\" — Phillips 66 CEO Mark Lashier, January 7, 2025",
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      "text": "Source: Bloomberg. Note: See appendix for definitions. (1) As reported in UBS's 12/16/24 research note...",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "DAMAGED CREDIBILITY: BLAMING THE MARKET ENVIRONMENT",
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