{
  "docId": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6d9-0a9e4ca95565",
  "docSlug": "917aed929317",
  "documentTitle": "Phillips 66 (PSX)",
  "authorId": "02_Elliott_Management",
  "authorName": null,
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "activist_investor",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Activist investor",
  "presentationDate": "2025-04-28 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 38,
  "pageCount": 154,
  "prevPage": 37,
  "nextPage": 39,
  "slideType": "expose_contradiction",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 9,
  "notes": "Uses CEO quote to contrast with poor financial performance.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "subtitle_text",
    "bar_chart_vertical",
    "callout_box",
    "quote_block",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6d9-0a9e4ca95565/38",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6d9-0a9e4ca95565",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6d9-0a9e4ca95565.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6d9-0a9e4ca95565#slide-38",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.1,
        "x": 0.26,
        "y": 0.275
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Phillips 66's best quarter in 2024 annualized still falls over $5bn short of the mid-cycle target",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "66f8d18b-1614-4c17-9ed4-5cca1860d414",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.08,
        "x": 0.85,
        "y": 0.235
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "2026 consensus estimates indicate a >$4bn shortfall",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "821a1269-3ca5-418a-aeb5-e7fa617f7fba",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.1,
        "x": 0.74,
        "y": 0.235
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Consensus estimates indicate a $6.8bn shortfall. The bulk of the deficit (~$4.9bn) is driven by refining",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "a8900474-c5b1-4532-9751-0c15ff907324",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.1,
        "x": 0.54,
        "y": 0.3
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Phillips 66's most recent quarter saw a further deterioration in performance",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "b1b61ced-d58d-49f0-983f-4a8c3213f9de",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Phillips 66 is far from achieving its 2025 mid-cycle EBITDA target, with analysts' 2026 estimates signaling a major shortfall – despite consensus forecasts assuming a reasonable mid-cycle price environment.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-1ac3-70f9-855b-ecfa3f1457e5",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.45,
        "w": 0.86,
        "x": 0.07,
        "y": 0.235
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Phillips Adj. EBITDA Target ($bn)",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-vertical",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "6af99c33-4a16-457e-bf29-759831677885",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "EBITDA: $14.0bn",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-1ac3-70f9-855b-f558a40ce0a1",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.86,
        "x": 0.07,
        "y": 0.14
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Phillips 66 is far from achieving its 2025 mid-cycle EBITDA target, with analysts' 2026 estimates signaling a major shortfall – despite consensus forecasts assuming a reasonable mid-cycle price environment.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "141da95a-6071-417c-9ddc-d63235a2d7f4",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.67,
        "x": 0.26,
        "y": 0.715
      },
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "\"We've completed the strategic priorities that we laid out in 2022, enhanced in 2023 and committed to achieving by the end of 2024.\"",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "testimonial",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "d921faf4-6fda-47fb-a4ce-5530858e0050",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "\"We've completed the strategic priorities that we laid out in 2022, enhanced in 2023 and committed to achieving by the end of 2024.\" — Phillips 66 CEO Mark Lashier, Q4 2024 Earnings Call",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Authority citation",
      "toolSlug": "authority-citation",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-1ac3-70f9-855b-f23b752c3d76",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.6,
        "x": 0.07,
        "y": 0.875
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Bloomberg. Note: Refining EBITDA presented here is inclusive of turnaround expenses to align with management definitions. See appendix for calculation details.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c0cdb421-b9ef-438e-8dd0-9ec40f25a94e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.04,
        "w": 0.86,
        "x": 0.07,
        "y": 0.09
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "POOR OPERATING PERFORMANCE: MISSED 2025 MID-CYCLE EBITDA TARGETS",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "1d4846c2-f9ab-4aee-83ee-2732b684f325",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "ceo-quote-contradiction",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "87f188af-c51f-4960-8f34-2b38e995274d",
      "evidence": "Contrasting CEO claim of success with poor EBITDA performance data.",
      "confidence": 0.95
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 40,
      "from": 15,
      "beatId": "73cebb8d-5ee0-4698-a087-3074401b5083",
      "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution",
      "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution",
      "beatName": "Agitate (Make it worse)",
      "beatSlug": "problem-agitate-solution-agitate-make-it-worse",
      "evidence": "The presentation agitates the problem by highlighting Phillips 66's poor operational performance, damaged management credibility, and failed governance culture.",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "parentBeatName": "Development",
      "parentBeatSlug": "development"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}