{
  "docId": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6d8-caf7ba55853c",
  "docSlug": "de33cb3292ec",
  "documentTitle": "Phillips 66 (PSX)",
  "authorId": "02_Elliott_Management",
  "authorName": "John Pike",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "activist_investor",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Activist investor",
  "presentationDate": "2025-02-11 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 65,
  "pageCount": 105,
  "prevPage": 64,
  "nextPage": 66,
  "slideType": "valuation_table",
  "function": "show_valuation_bridge",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 10,
  "notes": "Includes footnotes 5 and 6 detailing assumptions for capex, share count, and Valero comparison.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "paragraph",
    "valuation_table",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6d8-caf7ba55853c/65",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6d8-caf7ba55853c",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6d8-caf7ba55853c.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6d8-caf7ba55853c#slide-65",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "If achieved, the $14 billion 2025E mid-cycle EBITDA target translates to $9 billion of free cash flow, which at a 10% free cash flow yield implies a >$205 share price.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-5370-75b3-9c53-36a618281727",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Share Price: $205.89",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-5370-75b3-9c53-3fd598aa9af6",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.76,
        "x": 0.12,
        "y": 0.49
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "But while the Company's announced plan is admirable, investor skepticism about Phillips 66's ability to achieve these goals remains a weight on its stock price.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "27d7a67c-8944-4c26-8350-27086a653d7d",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.76,
        "x": 0.12,
        "y": 0.09
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "These are certainly the correct goals. If achieved, the $14 billion 2025E mid-cycle EBITDA target translates to $9 billion of free cash flow, which at a 10% free cash flow yield implies a >$205 share price.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "9d94b391-7317-4864-89e3-fe78c7f967ff",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "Phillips 66 \"remains an execution story\" — BofA, October 2023; \"[F]eedback from investors following [our] upgrade suggested they wanted to see PSX execute before giving them credit\" — Cowen, August 2023.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Authority citation",
      "toolSlug": "authority-citation",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-5370-75b3-9c53-39eceb558141",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.76,
        "x": 0.12,
        "y": 0.82
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "5 As of November 27, 2023: Capex based on Company guidance; Estimated Diluted Shares at Year-End 2023 assumes $1 billion of share repurchases in Q4 2023, in-line with the quarterly buyback cadence implied by management's latest capital-return policy.",
      "attrs": {
        "numbered": true
      },
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "1cf83585-5b9a-43b3-9f2d-f73ce63c2b91",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.76,
        "x": 0.12,
        "y": 0.87
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "6 Based on Elliott's estimate of Valero's free cash flow assuming average 2012 through 2019 RVO (Renewable Volume Obligation) adjusted refining crack spread, the same assumption that underpins Phillips 66's 2025 mid-cycle EBITDA target.",
      "attrs": {
        "numbered": true
      },
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "656a4793-21c8-44d4-b92d-0aa74c1e21ae",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.76,
        "x": 0.12,
        "y": 0.23
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Free Cash Flow at 2025E Mid-Cycle Target; Operating Cash Flow at 2025E Mid-Cycle EBITDA Target: 11,000; (-) Capex: (2,000); Free Cash Flow at 2025E Mid-Cycle EBITDA Target: 9,000; Upside to Current Price; Illustrative Mid-Cycle Free Cash Flow Yield: 10.0%; Market Capitalization: 90,000; Estimated Diluted Shares at Year-End 2023: 437; Share Price: 205.89; % Upside vs. Current Share Price: 74%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "valuation",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "0b0ad719-446c-4aea-8f78-2e8e9f85575d",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.76,
        "x": 0.12,
        "y": 0.215
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Phillips 66 Upside if 2025 Mid-Cycle EBITDA Target is Achieved",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "0e74f6cc-8d10-4d2c-b60e-cbc1ed0e6d70",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}