{
  "docId": "019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-92cb9e5864da",
  "docSlug": "dfd94aead7429e9f",
  "documentTitle": "2025 Benedict Evans 2025 Autum AI eats the world",
  "authorId": "BenedictEvans",
  "authorName": "Benedict Evans",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "independent_analyst",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Independent analyst",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.778,
  "pageNumber": 42,
  "pageCount": 90,
  "prevPage": 41,
  "nextPage": 43,
  "slideType": "strategic_options",
  "function": "compare_options",
  "density": "balanced",
  "nDataPoints": 0,
  "notes": "The slide uses a central question to frame a binary strategic choice.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "subtitle_text",
    "other"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-92cb9e5864da/42",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-92cb9e5864da",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-92cb9e5864da.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-92cb9e5864da#slide-42",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Where is the value capture for a research-heavy, capital-intensive commodity?",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-4e52-728e-927c-80ba56bc49ee",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.203,
        "w": 0.203,
        "x": 0.478,
        "y": 0.355
      },
      "kind": "diagram",
      "text": "If the models are commodities? And don't have network effects?",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "other",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "30b0fe72-09fd-4224-a5e8-a8bd7589ed56",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.203,
        "w": 0.203,
        "x": 0.752,
        "y": 0.355
      },
      "kind": "diagram",
      "text": "Go up the stack: Win on network effects & product? (See: software)",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "other",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "35baebf4-106d-4f1a-88b6-bc8eb2220c7a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.203,
        "w": 0.203,
        "x": 0.203,
        "y": 0.355
      },
      "kind": "diagram",
      "text": "Go down the stack: Win on scale? (see: aircraft, AWS, chips)",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "other",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "a3782d25-1662-4438-afc8-70bd99cde6d6",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.028,
        "w": 0.594,
        "x": 0.203,
        "y": 0.128
      },
      "kind": "subtitle",
      "text": "Where is the value capture for a research-heavy, capital-intensive commodity?",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "427c1e39-9e3f-4fcf-a381-bd8d29f8c328",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.055,
        "w": 0.594,
        "x": 0.203,
        "y": 0.055
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "So where does a model lab compete?",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "6454f752-6816-48c3-bfe0-39a231993f81",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Curiosity Gap",
      "slug": "curiosity-gap",
      "agent": "Storyteller",
      "layer": "block",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-1b83-7130-9342-9a9b72b61b2c",
      "evidence": "Question opens the strategic-options loop",
      "confidence": 65
    },
    {
      "name": "Action Titles",
      "slug": "action-titles",
      "agent": "Architect",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-1b83-7130-9342-9608bac31fd8",
      "evidence": "Title 'So where does a model lab compete?'",
      "confidence": 75
    },
    {
      "name": "Canvas framework",
      "slug": "canvas-framework",
      "agent": null,
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "7fb487bc-c7db-4548-8542-ba7e0fcfa51a",
      "evidence": "The slide presents a framework for thinking about strategic options.",
      "confidence": 0.6
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "strategic-options",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "10612304-5ac0-4ae0-b899-cdba7eb64de6",
      "evidence": "Presents two distinct paths for value capture based on market positioning.",
      "confidence": 0.8
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 48,
      "from": 14,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-07a7-7579-bd65-4f5b40875a96",
      "arcName": "The Mountain",
      "arcSlug": "mountain",
      "beatName": "Rising Action",
      "beatSlug": "mountain-rising-action",
      "evidence": "Inside tech: $400bn capex, $1.4tr OpenAI, models commoditize, value capture unclear",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 70,
      "parentBeatName": "Development",
      "parentBeatSlug": "development"
    },
    {
      "to": 48,
      "from": 1,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-07a7-7579-bd65-5b209794247f",
      "arcName": "The Triple Take",
      "arcSlug": "triple-take",
      "beatName": "The Facts (What)",
      "beatSlug": "triple-take-the-facts-what",
      "evidence": "Platform shift evidence + capex surge + model proliferation data",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 60,
      "parentBeatName": "Setup",
      "parentBeatSlug": "setup"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 48,
      "from": 33,
      "name": "Aha Moment",
      "slug": "03-aha-moment",
      "bestFor": "Data-heavy sections, research findings, analytical arguments",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-08f8-7619-ac2e-c68666bae910",
      "evidence": "Model convergence (35), 5% paying (37), 'where is value capture?' (48)",
      "position": 3,
      "objective": "Reveal that despite spend, value capture location is unclear",
      "structure": "The Problem/Question -> What the Data Shows -> The Insight",
      "confidence": 75,
      "description": "Establish a tension, present data, then deliver the insight that changes everything"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}