{
  "docId": "019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-80806e6b958f",
  "docSlug": "b1ac5794d68b3e09",
  "documentTitle": "2021 Benedict Evans 2021 Three Steps to the Future",
  "authorId": "BenedictEvans",
  "authorName": "Benedict Evans",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "independent_analyst",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Independent analyst",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.778,
  "pageNumber": 63,
  "pageCount": 94,
  "prevPage": 62,
  "nextPage": 64,
  "slideType": "data_table",
  "function": "analyze_data",
  "density": "balanced",
  "nDataPoints": 7,
  "notes": "The chart categorizes retail revenue by delivery method, highlighting the split between physical retail and ecommerce, grocery, and restaurant models.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "subtitle_text",
    "bar_chart_stacked",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-80806e6b958f/63",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-80806e6b958f",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-80806e6b958f.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-80806e6b958f#slide-63",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.6,
        "w": 0.7,
        "x": 0.15,
        "y": 0.25
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "US retail revenue by delivery model, 2020 ($bn)",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-stacked",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "cdc68553-0285-457e-93f4-959ae986876f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "US retail revenue: $2,500bn",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-4e52-728e-9270-f9bb7f646e16",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.4,
        "x": 0.2,
        "y": 0.12
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Cardboard boxes versus hand delivery, trucks and bikes",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "45b75886-f94c-496c-b058-bc87b2630dd7",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.3,
        "x": 0.2,
        "y": 0.9
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: US Census. Cars, car repair & gasoline not shown. * 2019",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "d0e57ecf-4437-41c3-8c9d-1be911569f5f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.6,
        "x": 0.2,
        "y": 0.05
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Everyone buys anything online - the question is how",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "9a810244-148e-4bf1-aef6-55e2e325334c",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Chart Selection Guide",
      "slug": "chart-selection-guide",
      "agent": "Designer",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "25eb7d9c-cb6e-48d4-be25-5875f8bb9c6e",
      "evidence": "chart/bar-stacked: US retail revenue by delivery model, 2020 ($bn)",
      "confidence": 0.5
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 79,
      "from": 49,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-07a7-7579-bd64-d7c61d74da23",
      "arcName": "The Onion",
      "arcSlug": "onion",
      "beatName": "Deeper Layer",
      "beatSlug": "onion-deeper-layer",
      "evidence": "Past section reveals the actual disruption mechanic — unbundling of media + retail",
      "position": 3,
      "confidence": 70,
      "parentBeatName": "Development",
      "parentBeatSlug": "development"
    },
    {
      "to": 94,
      "from": 49,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-07a7-7579-bd64-e92c55e01c88",
      "arcName": "The Triple Take",
      "arcSlug": "triple-take",
      "beatName": "The Action (Now What)",
      "beatSlug": "triple-take-the-action-now-what",
      "evidence": "Past + conclusion: apply unbundling pattern to predict winners",
      "position": 3,
      "confidence": 60,
      "parentBeatName": "Resolution",
      "parentBeatSlug": "resolution"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 79,
      "from": 59,
      "name": "Pattern Hunter",
      "slug": "02-pattern-hunter",
      "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-08f8-7619-ac2e-47b44c686f70",
      "evidence": "Lockdown pull-forward → 40% UK online → Amazon shipping → Shopify $160bn → Shein → 'rent is the new CAC' synthesis",
      "position": 6,
      "objective": "Stack retail-disruption data points into a cumulative case",
      "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion",
      "confidence": 80,
      "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}