{
  "docId": "019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-80806e6b958f",
  "docSlug": "b1ac5794d68b3e09",
  "documentTitle": "2021 Benedict Evans 2021 Three Steps to the Future",
  "authorId": "BenedictEvans",
  "authorName": "Benedict Evans",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "independent_analyst",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Independent analyst",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.778,
  "pageNumber": 34,
  "pageCount": 94,
  "prevPage": 33,
  "nextPage": 35,
  "slideType": "transition",
  "function": "transition",
  "density": "sparse",
  "nDataPoints": 0,
  "notes": "The slide uses a simple flow diagram to show convergence of two themes into a central core concept.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "process_diagram"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 0.95,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-80806e6b958f/34",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-80806e6b958f",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-80806e6b958f.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-80806e6b958f#slide-34",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "How do we take ownership of digital?",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-4e52-728e-926c-e58c90c29bf7",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.3,
        "w": 0.6,
        "x": 0.2,
        "y": 0.35
      },
      "kind": "diagram",
      "text": "New ways to make software, networks and ownership? -> Identify, self-expression, place and self <- New ways to make screens immersive and universal?",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "process",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "1c526297-309f-4bfe-bf67-b829c7a4f0ff",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.25,
        "x": 0.2,
        "y": 0.12
      },
      "kind": "subtitle",
      "text": "How do we take ownership of digital?",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "b8f862e7-55eb-4e66-a6da-fd8721ea1d07",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.45,
        "x": 0.2,
        "y": 0.05
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "But some things do seem universal",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "e0117509-5496-4bf0-b08a-d64c63b9e9f2",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Audience frame",
      "slug": "audience-frame",
      "agent": null,
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "70e0c3f0-5767-4c1f-8161-5811b9b07a0f",
      "evidence": "New ways to make software, networks and ownership? -> Identify, self-expression, place and self <- New ways to make screens immersive and universal?",
      "confidence": 0.6
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 34,
      "from": 1,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-07a7-7579-bd64-cef58de09441",
      "arcName": "The Onion",
      "arcSlug": "onion",
      "beatName": "Surface Observation",
      "beatSlug": "onion-surface-observation",
      "evidence": "Future-section opens with Web3 + metaverse hype (the surface story everyone debates)",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 70,
      "parentBeatName": "Setup",
      "parentBeatSlug": "setup"
    },
    {
      "to": 34,
      "from": 3,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-07a7-7579-bd64-e1cdf8825bc7",
      "arcName": "The Triple Take",
      "arcSlug": "triple-take",
      "beatName": "The Facts (What)",
      "beatSlug": "triple-take-the-facts-what",
      "evidence": "Future section catalogs Web3 + metaverse claims and data",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 60,
      "parentBeatName": "Setup",
      "parentBeatSlug": "setup"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 34,
      "from": 29,
      "name": "Precedent",
      "slug": "09-precedent",
      "bestFor": "Risk mitigation, strategy validation, building confidence in new approaches",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-08f8-7619-ac2e-39cb042f9533",
      "evidence": "Mobile-data-decade lag (p31), AI/VR winters (p32), 1995 web confusion (p33) all cited as parallels",
      "position": 3,
      "objective": "Use mobile/AI/web history to calibrate expectations on tech timing",
      "structure": "The Precedent Case -> What Happened -> The Parallel -> Applied Learning",
      "confidence": 80,
      "description": "Use historical or external examples to validate your approach"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}