{
  "docId": "019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-7a1f59ad75c6",
  "docSlug": "a210209197557aae",
  "documentTitle": "2020 Benedict Evans 2020 December The Great Unbundling",
  "authorId": "BenedictEvans",
  "authorName": "Benedict Evans",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "independent_analyst",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Independent analyst",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.778,
  "pageNumber": 56,
  "pageCount": 134,
  "prevPage": 55,
  "nextPage": 57,
  "slideType": "financial_analysis",
  "function": "quantify_impact",
  "density": "balanced",
  "nDataPoints": 6,
  "notes": "The red arrow indicates the magnitude of the swing from negative cash flow in 2019 to positive in 2020.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "bar_chart_vertical"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-7a1f59ad75c6/56",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-7a1f59ad75c6",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-7a1f59ad75c6.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-7a1f59ad75c6#slide-56",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Surge in lockdown subscriptions has taken Netflix to breakeven after years of heavy content investment",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-4e51-732b-a115-32722f4efbcc",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.55,
        "w": 0.6,
        "x": 0.2,
        "y": 0.25
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Free cash flow ($bn) 2015-2020",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-vertical",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "53520c94-9cbe-46f5-a5eb-91b01eb3945f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Free cash flow: $5bn",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-4e51-732b-a115-3735af0574e7",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.1,
        "x": 0.2,
        "y": 0.9
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Netflix",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "39380076-2cc6-48f0-9938-d55e267e409c",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.6,
        "x": 0.2,
        "y": 0.12
      },
      "kind": "subtitle",
      "text": "Surge in lockdown subscriptions has taken Netflix to breakeven after years of heavy content investment",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "50a1eadf-9a10-4a8a-872c-3840aa2236f3",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.3,
        "x": 0.2,
        "y": 0.05
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Netflix - a $5bn swing",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c82e3c09-10ee-4978-b675-b65674468a29",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Action Titles",
      "slug": "action-titles",
      "agent": "Architect",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-1b83-7130-9337-5da978aad7d5",
      "evidence": "Title 'Netflix - a $5bn swing' = the insight.",
      "confidence": 80
    },
    {
      "name": "Waterfall chart",
      "slug": "waterfall-chart",
      "agent": null,
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "e13cde44-6dda-44eb-8e75-0ac92a2ea916",
      "evidence": "chart/bar-vertical: Free cash flow ($bn) 2015-2020",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 82,
      "from": 42,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-07a7-7579-bd64-b003998d1a6c",
      "arcName": "The Onion",
      "arcSlug": "onion",
      "beatName": "Deeper Layer",
      "beatSlug": "onion-deeper-layer",
      "evidence": "Advertising, TV, then 'harder problems' (cars, energy, biology) extend the pattern.",
      "position": 3,
      "confidence": 60,
      "parentBeatName": "Development",
      "parentBeatSlug": "development"
    },
    {
      "to": 82,
      "from": 16,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-07a7-7579-bd64-c158921ae73a",
      "arcName": "The Mountain",
      "arcSlug": "mountain",
      "beatName": "Rising Action",
      "beatSlug": "mountain-rising-action",
      "evidence": "Unbundling thesis layered across retail, ads, TV, harder problems.",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 50,
      "parentBeatName": "Development",
      "parentBeatSlug": "development"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 59,
      "from": 53,
      "name": "Pattern Hunter",
      "slug": "02-pattern-hunter",
      "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-08f8-7619-ac2e-110698f1582f",
      "evidence": "Pay-TV decline, Netflix/Disney sub growth, content spend, geographic mix — all pointing to TV unbundling.",
      "position": 5,
      "objective": "Multiple datapoints prove TV is being unbundled by streamers",
      "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion",
      "confidence": 78,
      "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}