{
  "docId": "019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-7a1f59ad75c6",
  "docSlug": "a210209197557aae",
  "documentTitle": "2020 Benedict Evans 2020 December The Great Unbundling",
  "authorId": "BenedictEvans",
  "authorName": "Benedict Evans",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "independent_analyst",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Independent analyst",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.778,
  "pageNumber": 14,
  "pageCount": 134,
  "prevPage": 13,
  "nextPage": 15,
  "slideType": "data_table",
  "function": "quantify_impact",
  "density": "balanced",
  "nDataPoints": 12,
  "notes": "The chart uses a waterfall format to aggregate supply from various pharmaceutical companies.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "subtitle_text",
    "waterfall_chart"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-7a1f59ad75c6/14",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-7a1f59ad75c6",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-7a1f59ad75c6.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-7a1f59ad75c6#slide-14",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "There is announced supply for 8bn vaccinations in 2021, if they can be administered",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-4e51-732b-a112-56e198342d05",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.55,
        "w": 0.6,
        "x": 0.2,
        "y": 0.25
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Announced 2021 vaccination supply (bn)",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "waterfall",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "5e14d46f-6213-4399-b51f-6c872e1e48a7",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Vaccination supply (bn): 8bn",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-4e51-732b-a112-5a37b7f49bc7",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.55,
        "x": 0.2,
        "y": 0.12
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "There is announced supply for 8bn vaccinations in 2021, if they can be administered",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "bd956ae5-3a5a-49fa-a9c6-61f9fe7df38e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.1,
        "x": 0.2,
        "y": 0.9
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Companies",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "e294abce-0d9c-4640-a725-9222708aed96",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.25,
        "x": 0.2,
        "y": 0.05
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Towards an exit...",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "f773d68c-8f81-4b4b-a1ea-30bc0df14f20",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Concrete Language",
      "slug": "concrete-language",
      "agent": "Storyteller",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-1b83-7130-9336-c81d4e727f28",
      "evidence": "Specific '8bn vaccinations announced supply'.",
      "confidence": 75
    },
    {
      "name": "Waterfall chart",
      "slug": "waterfall-chart",
      "agent": null,
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "5357b8c3-2ce4-4844-8d5b-df35907b7b66",
      "evidence": "chart/waterfall: Announced 2021 vaccination supply (bn)",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "waterfall-chart",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "261b3271-a98e-4c84-9799-b2d142e8438f",
      "evidence": "The chart visualizes the cumulative effect of sequential positive values.",
      "confidence": 1
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 15,
      "from": 3,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-07a7-7579-bd64-a9c2aa8a03e5",
      "arcName": "The Onion",
      "arcSlug": "onion",
      "beatName": "Surface Observation",
      "beatSlug": "onion-surface-observation",
      "evidence": "COVID 'shock' and forced-experiment data are the visible top layer.",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 60,
      "parentBeatName": "Setup",
      "parentBeatSlug": "setup"
    },
    {
      "to": 15,
      "from": 1,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-07a7-7579-bd64-bdfe4bf3be94",
      "arcName": "The Mountain",
      "arcSlug": "mountain",
      "beatName": "Setup & Stakes",
      "beatSlug": "mountain-setup-stakes",
      "evidence": "Welcome 2021 + COVID acceleration sets the stakes.",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 50,
      "parentBeatName": "Setup",
      "parentBeatSlug": "setup"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 14,
      "from": 4,
      "name": "Pattern Hunter",
      "slug": "02-pattern-hunter",
      "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-08f8-7619-ac2e-00210247a402",
      "evidence": "Sequence of stat slides (employment, ecommerce, grocery, video, WFH, travel, vaccines) all stamping the same pattern.",
      "position": 1,
      "objective": "Stack data points to prove COVID accelerated everything 5-10 years",
      "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion",
      "confidence": 80,
      "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}