{
  "docId": "019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-726036f6ba50",
  "docSlug": "d3b96dc2b54a8601",
  "documentTitle": "2017 Benedict Evans 2017 Ten Year Futures",
  "authorId": "BenedictEvans",
  "authorName": "Benedict Evans",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "independent_analyst",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Independent analyst",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.777,
  "pageNumber": 10,
  "pageCount": 76,
  "prevPage": 9,
  "nextPage": 11,
  "slideType": "quote_slide",
  "function": "illustrate_case",
  "density": "sparse",
  "nDataPoints": 0,
  "notes": null,
  "elementsJson": [
    "quote_block"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-726036f6ba50/10",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-726036f6ba50",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-726036f6ba50.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-726036f6ba50#slide-10",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.014,
        "w": 0.227,
        "x": 0.033,
        "y": 0.958
      },
      "kind": "disclaimer",
      "text": "©2017 Andreessen Horowitz. Proprietary and confidential.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "826c6461-6e71-4b38-8536-c4abf622c85b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.27,
        "x": 0.208,
        "y": 0.618
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "- Marc Andreessen",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "13dde591-fcf6-4472-bca9-cce407153cb0",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.222,
        "w": 0.583,
        "x": 0.208,
        "y": 0.333
      },
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "“I arrived in Silicon Valley in 1994 and I thought I was too late and missed the whole thing”",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "pull-quote",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "87de24ee-9dc2-44b4-9f99-e1cb587f43c3",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "“I arrived in Silicon Valley in 1994 and I thought I was too late and missed the whole thing” - Marc Andreessen",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Authority citation",
      "toolSlug": "authority-citation",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-4e52-728e-9273-4c22d28d0e8b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Authority Bias",
      "slug": "authority-bias",
      "agent": "Storyteller",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-1b09-7403-ac58-5b172fb2ab2e",
      "evidence": "Quote slide leverages expert opinion.",
      "confidence": 65
    },
    {
      "name": "Credibility Transfer",
      "slug": "credibility-transfer",
      "agent": "Storyteller",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-1b09-7403-ac58-56dd4a75e363",
      "evidence": "Pull-quote from Silicon Valley insider lends authority to 'too late' fallacy.",
      "confidence": 80
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 12,
      "from": 8,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-07a7-7579-bd64-5eda22b954bf",
      "arcName": "The Sparkline",
      "arcSlug": "sparkline",
      "beatName": "What Could Be",
      "beatSlug": "sparkline-what-could-be-2",
      "evidence": "Mobile=PCs2005 analogy hints at unbuilt platforms; 'always something else coming'.",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 78,
      "parentBeatName": "Turn",
      "parentBeatSlug": "turn"
    },
    {
      "to": 22,
      "from": 8,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-07a7-7579-bd64-712c7a85e770",
      "arcName": "The Pixar Pitch",
      "arcSlug": "pixar-pitch",
      "beatName": "Every day",
      "beatSlug": "pixar-pitch-every-day",
      "evidence": "Mobile is mature; GAFA dominate at unprecedented scale.",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 60,
      "parentBeatName": "Setup",
      "parentBeatSlug": "setup"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 12,
      "from": 8,
      "name": "Analogy",
      "slug": "08-analogy",
      "bestFor": "Complex concepts, new markets, technical explanations for non-experts",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-08f8-7619-ac2d-b4a98138bc3e",
      "evidence": "p.8 'Mobile now = PCs in 2005' plus quote and 'always something else coming'.",
      "position": 2,
      "objective": "Map mobile-now to PCs-2005 to argue platform is still under-built",
      "structure": "The Familiar Domain -> Key Parallel -> Applied to Our Situation -> Insight",
      "confidence": 78,
      "description": "Explain the unfamiliar through a well-understood parallel domain"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}