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  "documentTitle": "2025 Air Street Capital The State of AI Report 2025",
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  "notes": "The slide references two specific charts: Figure 10 (Recent Dissimilarity in Occupational Mix) and Figure 1 (Changes in Occupational Mix Over Different Periods of Technological Change).",
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      "text": "If that trend continues, an AI-induced labor disruption will take decades to materialize, not months.",
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      "text": "Figure 10. Recent Dissimilarity in the Occupational Mix Between Recent College Graduates (Ages 20-24) and Older College Graduates (Ages 25-34)",
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      "text": "Figure 1. Changes in the Occupational Mix Over Different Periods of Technological Change",
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      "text": "They focus on “occupational mix,” a macro measurement of job movement among workers, i.e. switching/starting/losing a job.\nCurrently, the “occupational mix” for AI is tracking with that of other tech breakthroughs like the introduction of the internet and computers. If that trend continues, an AI-induced labor disruption will take decades to materialize, not months.\nThe study’s results, however, do not contradict the sector-specific Stanford study (see previous slide). There is an uptick in “occupational mix dissimilarity” among new grads in recent months but the dissimilarity tracks with pre-2022 trends, suggesting non-AI factors.",
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      "text": "A joint study from the Yale Budget Lab and Brooking Institution found that current labor market changes precede the introduction of ChatGPT in 2022. The authors conclude that there’s little reason to think that “AI automation is currently eroding the demand for cognitive labor across the economy” and caution against predicting job losses based on “AI-exposure” data alone.",
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