{
  "docId": "019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-0d0f98caffe1",
  "docSlug": "5df6bd1b0447b5f6",
  "documentTitle": "2025 Air Street Capital The State of AI Report 2025",
  "authorId": "AirStreetCapital",
  "authorName": "Air Street Capital",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "vc_research",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "VC research",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.777,
  "pageNumber": 142,
  "pageCount": 313,
  "prevPage": 141,
  "nextPage": 143,
  "slideType": "industry_trends",
  "function": "analyze_data",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 4,
  "notes": "The slide uses a process-like flow to explain the market's overreaction to training cost news.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "process_diagram",
    "screenshot",
    "data_table",
    "line_chart"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 0.95,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-0d0f98caffe1/142",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-0d0f98caffe1",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-0d0f98caffe1.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-0d0f98caffe1#slide-142",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Cheaper intelligence → more demand → more chips ⇒ more usage",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-41ac-7180-a829-ad372de95628",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.4,
        "w": 0.3,
        "x": 0.65,
        "y": 0.48
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Nvidia share price history",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "line",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "5e00cfda-4fa3-48ea-a718-c9d183182476",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.3,
        "x": 0.35,
        "y": 0.7
      },
      "kind": "disclaimer",
      "text": "*Note that the aforementioned costs include only the official training of DeepSeek-V3, excluding the costs associated with prior research and ablation experiments on architectures, algorithms, or data",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "6d28930e-b3d4-4d1e-9d7d-97075022ae37",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.4,
        "w": 0.2,
        "x": 0.08,
        "y": 0.48
      },
      "kind": "image",
      "text": "NVIDIA stock price chart",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "screenshot",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "05bb68c3-18c8-405e-9be5-304c777c2c89",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.28,
        "x": 0.35,
        "y": 0.235
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "... but wait, $5M* is only for the final training run not the entire project...",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "0c197680-96a7-424c-a738-b897e2a50b9a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.28,
        "x": 0.03,
        "y": 0.235
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Panic!!! Frontier AI for $5M!! Markets wipe $600B from NVIDIA in 1 day!!",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "da87465c-d1b3-448e-8877-5235e842a6b8",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.28,
        "x": 0.68,
        "y": 0.235
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Cheaper intelligence → more demand → more chips ⇒ more usage",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "f4229941-6a16-4d18-a3d5-1c5cba38ac91",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "NVIDIA share price: $600B",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-41ac-7180-a829-b2851250a2c6",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.2,
        "w": 0.3,
        "x": 0.35,
        "y": 0.48
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Training Costs table",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "4e040019-a6f2-411d-b14b-3c6e44c9d6c5",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.8,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.14
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "From DeepSeek’s deep freak out morphs into a full-tilt on Jevons Paradox",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "8764a64a-72a1-402f-a598-74e739d265b1",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Causal Chain",
      "slug": "causal-chain",
      "agent": "Architect",
      "layer": "loop",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-1055-74e0-a95c-751e972110e1",
      "evidence": "Explicit chain: 'Cheaper intelligence → more demand → more chips → more usage'.",
      "confidence": 90
    },
    {
      "name": "Metaphor & Analogy",
      "slug": "metaphor-analogy",
      "agent": "Storyteller",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-1055-74e0-a95c-79d1645fa86b",
      "evidence": "Jevons Paradox borrowed economic concept applied to compute.",
      "confidence": 75
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "Jevons Paradox",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "019dd95a-1ca5-70bb-bba0-e2631de2c9f1",
      "evidence": "Title explicitly invokes 'Jevons Paradox' as framing.",
      "confidence": 90
    },
    {
      "name": "Jevons Paradox",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "c62a42ae-8350-4927-9bb1-d6008d9a6f1a",
      "evidence": "Explicitly mentioned in title and text flow",
      "confidence": 1
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 189,
      "from": 12,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-0682-776c-8e35-9f380673831f",
      "arcName": "The Triple Take",
      "arcSlug": "triple-take",
      "beatName": "The Facts (What)",
      "beatSlug": "triple-take-the-facts-what",
      "evidence": "Sections 1-2 lay out research findings and industry data with charts and case studies.",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 70,
      "parentBeatName": "Setup",
      "parentBeatSlug": "setup"
    },
    {
      "to": 189,
      "from": 90,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-0682-776c-8e35-b06421e14afb",
      "arcName": "The Onion",
      "arcSlug": "onion",
      "beatName": "Deeper Layer",
      "beatSlug": "onion-deeper-layer",
      "evidence": "Industry section exposes economics, infra, geopolitics beneath research.",
      "position": 3,
      "confidence": 45,
      "parentBeatName": "Development",
      "parentBeatSlug": "development"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}