{
  "docId": "019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-0d0f98caffe1",
  "docSlug": "5df6bd1b0447b5f6",
  "documentTitle": "2025 Air Street Capital The State of AI Report 2025",
  "authorId": "AirStreetCapital",
  "authorName": "Air Street Capital",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "vc_research",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "VC research",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.777,
  "pageNumber": 127,
  "pageCount": 313,
  "prevPage": 126,
  "nextPage": 128,
  "slideType": "industry_trends",
  "function": "summarize",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 3,
  "notes": "Includes a photo of Satya Nadella and Sam Altman with a quote.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "action_title",
    "bullet_list",
    "paragraph",
    "photo",
    "quote_block"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 0.95,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-0d0f98caffe1/127",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-0d0f98caffe1",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-0d0f98caffe1.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd5d-0d0f98caffe1#slide-127",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "While signs of fracturing become noticeable, a complete divorce looks unlikely.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-41ac-7180-a828-3996381ce593",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.45,
        "w": 0.2,
        "x": 0.78,
        "y": 0.32
      },
      "kind": "image",
      "text": "Photo of Satya Nadella and Sam Altman",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "photo",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "d2ef470b-2b7f-4043-8d07-bbff6e73c53f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.75,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.32
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Microsoft's inability, or unwillingness, to bring training compute online fast enough has impacted OpenAI's roadmap. As OpenAI has gravitated closer to Oracle to fulfill these needs, Microsoft has abstained from exercising its \"right of first refusal.\" They appear hesitant to bet on next-generation centralized clusters.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "8d2e0197-66ed-4955-8ed0-cf6989d2c0bc",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.75,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.65
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Microsoft can always work to block the for-profit's conversion into a PBC, which could cost OpenAI $20B in funding if not completed by the end of 2025. Conversely, OpenAI always retains the option to air antitrust concerns if Microsoft proves adversarial or reneges on certain AGI clauses.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "a2d7e6d0-3230-4d28-a5c4-967c8e4c10ea",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.75,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.48
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Meanwhile, OpenAI appears to be trying to escape from other key elements of their partnership with Microsoft. Through 2030, Microsoft maintains a 20% revenue sharing arrangement, access to OpenAI's IP, and exclusivity on OpenAI's API. Yet, OpenAI wants the 20% share dialed back to 10% before the end of the decade.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "afb14ff5-78c4-45c6-83c6-4272e8375636",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.75,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.82
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Microsoft AI also released previews of a voice and MoE model trained on 15k H100s.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "da89e7f9-8a19-4451-b392-8e0341257109",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.75,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.22
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "OpenAI's recent restructuring and soaring demand for training compute has placed tremendous stress on its relationship with Microsoft. While signs of fracturing become noticeable, a complete divorce looks unlikely.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "d1160ee4-90af-47ba-8acc-412c352ae02f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.22,
        "x": 0.77,
        "y": 0.82
      },
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "\"We are below them, above them, around them.\"",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "pull-quote",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "d6969ea3-0ed1-4205-859b-34198462aaef",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.6,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.14
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "OpenAI and its benefactor, Microsoft, navigate a rocky relationship",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "1f0622fd-28f9-48ab-852b-942c2b6099f1",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Audience Definition",
      "slug": "audience-definition",
      "agent": "Storyteller",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "7aa025cc-397d-479c-a84a-3cd3d9bb2003",
      "evidence": "The slide appears to be targeting an audience interested in AI and technology trends, specifically OpenAI and Microsoft.",
      "confidence": 0.7
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 189,
      "from": 12,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-0682-776c-8e35-9f380673831f",
      "arcName": "The Triple Take",
      "arcSlug": "triple-take",
      "beatName": "The Facts (What)",
      "beatSlug": "triple-take-the-facts-what",
      "evidence": "Sections 1-2 lay out research findings and industry data with charts and case studies.",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 70,
      "parentBeatName": "Setup",
      "parentBeatSlug": "setup"
    },
    {
      "to": 189,
      "from": 90,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-0682-776c-8e35-b06421e14afb",
      "arcName": "The Onion",
      "arcSlug": "onion",
      "beatName": "Deeper Layer",
      "beatSlug": "onion-deeper-layer",
      "evidence": "Industry section exposes economics, infra, geopolitics beneath research.",
      "position": 3,
      "confidence": 45,
      "parentBeatName": "Development",
      "parentBeatSlug": "development"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 135,
      "from": 122,
      "name": "Why Now",
      "slug": "15-why-now",
      "bestFor": "Sales pitches, fundraising, requesting immediate budget approval",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-07fe-70ce-8d3e-a63e356de409",
      "evidence": "Stargate $500B (p.122), 5GW clusters by 2028 (p.129), power shortfalls (p.132), fusion PPAs (p.135).",
      "position": 7,
      "objective": "Establish urgency of compute/power buildout as window of opportunity",
      "structure": "The Context (Trends) -> The Trigger Event -> The Window of Opportunity",
      "confidence": 75,
      "description": "Create temporal urgency by proving that the window of opportunity is opening or closing"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}