{
  "docId": "019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-ab6c30a76564",
  "docSlug": "4ef4911b09fc45a1",
  "documentTitle": "Global gas outlook to 2050",
  "authorId": "McKinsey",
  "authorName": "McKinsey",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.414,
  "pageNumber": 17,
  "pageCount": 26,
  "prevPage": 16,
  "nextPage": 18,
  "slideType": "industry_trends",
  "function": "analyze_data",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 20,
  "notes": "The slide uses a line chart for historical/projected trends and a stacked bar chart for sector-specific demand projections.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "line_chart",
    "bar_chart_grouped",
    "paragraph",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-ab6c30a76564/17",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-ab6c30a76564",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-ab6c30a76564.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-ab6c30a76564#slide-17",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "By 2050, the demand for sustainable fuels could be between ~190 Mta (in the Fading Momentum scenario) and ~600 Mta (in Achieved Commitments scenarios) depending on the level of net-zero ambition across countries.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-2e35-763d-8376-3421dd8afdb8",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.5,
        "w": 0.3,
        "x": 0.33,
        "y": 0.3
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Global sustainable fuels demand by sector, Fading Momentum to Achieved Commitments scenarios, Mta",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-stacked",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "5f96685f-4f96-4e15-866a-271ca4ad39ca",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.5,
        "w": 0.3,
        "x": 0.04,
        "y": 0.3
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Global sustainable fuels demand outlook by scenario, Mta",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "line",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "09784301-296b-472a-85a6-116617f28e03",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Mta: 600",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-2e35-763d-8376-380844ab500f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.28,
        "x": 0.68,
        "y": 0.62
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "The long-term contribution of sustainable fuels to decarbonization will likely be driven by the level of regulatory ambition (including subsidies, mandates, and tax credits) and technological advancement. Uptake of sustainable fuels by 2030 will mainly be driven by regulation which has already been proposed. By 2050, the demand for sustainable fuels could be between ~190 Mta (in the Fading Momentum scenario) and ~600 Mta (in the Achieved Commitments) depending on the level of net-zero ambition across countries.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "0de863b8-cf0c-4388-ae8b-17ea16a66dce",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.28,
        "x": 0.68,
        "y": 0.3
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Across scenarios, sustainable fuels are expected to play an increasingly important role in the transportation sectors, including hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation, maritime, and heavy-duty road transport.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "502e3a4d-89ca-45c2-ac4c-c9247c313b5d",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.28,
        "x": 0.68,
        "y": 0.46
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "The demand for sustainable fuels is projected to be consistently high for road transport given its strong starting point and existing momentum for decarbonization, the variability between scenarios is largely driven by the less mature markets like aviation, maritime, and chemicals.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "edfd842c-6f5e-4498-96ca-19e10ef57727",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.4,
        "x": 0.04,
        "y": 0.91
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: McKinsey Energy Solutions' Global Energy Perspective 2023; McKinsey Sustainable Fuels Model",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "48f828c4-f7d1-49fd-bc8e-43bfdaa481c6",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.5,
        "x": 0.04,
        "y": 0.17
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Main differentiation in growth rates between scenarios occurs in 2030–2050",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "action-title",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "184be424-84d8-4556-8688-f2255d875f90",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.8,
        "x": 0.04,
        "y": 0.06
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Sustainable fuels demand is expected to grow significantly, tripling by 2050 in some scenarios",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "d82753da-9c41-42c0-98e9-02320e2bf51e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 22,
      "from": 16,
      "beatId": "5e6a2402-3586-464d-a40b-280edb6a0aac",
      "arcName": "The Sparkline",
      "arcSlug": "sparkline",
      "beatName": "Future Outlook",
      "beatSlug": "sparkline-what-could-be-4",
      "evidence": "The document provides a detailed analysis of the future outlook for the energy sector, including investments, growth in power and green hydrogen sector, and key signposts that could shape the energy transition.",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Turn",
      "parentBeatSlug": "turn"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}