{ "docId": "019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-a6e85a941300", "docSlug": "5e92be3b12a83edd", "documentTitle": "Road to Resilience The 2024 Annual Turnaround Survey 0", "authorId": "AlvarezMarsal", "authorName": "Alvarez & Marsal", "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting", "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting", "presentationDate": null, "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.778, "pageNumber": 5, "pageCount": 20, "prevPage": 4, "nextPage": 6, "slideType": "industry_trends", "function": "analyze_data", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 12, "notes": "Includes navigation sidebar typical of a digital consulting deck.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "donut_chart", "bar_chart_stacked", "other" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-a6e85a941300/5", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-a6e85a941300", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-a6e85a941300.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-a6e85a941300#slide-5", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Around 37% of respondents in the survey anticipate a recession in the next 12 months, and 10% anticipate a recession in the next six months.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd952-0a6b-775b-a1e5-da66a3cc795e", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.46, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "What do you anticipate over the next 12 months regarding the following?", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bar-stacked", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "92f3361c-0c98-4703-a97f-a0cc1f6b9699", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.41, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Do you anticipate a recession in Australia in the near future?", "attrs": null, "subkind": "pie", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "168c5a35-89b9-43cf-8905-f7c92b3aaa94", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Recession anticipation: 36.71%", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": "Quantification", "toolSlug": "quantification", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd952-0a6b-775b-a1e5-dee7edfd8510", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.41, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The survey shows that the outlook for inflation and interest rates in Australia is cautious. While 40% of respondents point to a slight decline in inflation in the next 12 months, 30% expect it to remain constant, and 26% anticipate a slight increase. There seems to be more concern around wages inflation, with 54% of those surveyed expecting it to stay around current levels, and another 23% expecting it to rise slightly.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "1b00c009-b638-439f-82e6-a229f7d7965d", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.41, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Around 37% of respondents in the survey anticipate a recession in the next 12 months, and 10% anticipate a recession in the next six months. Expectations from market participants have somewhat improved from the 2023 survey, when 70% of respondents said they were anticipating a recession in the following year.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "7e32c61f-3b6b-4849-817c-60af222f712a", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.46, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Similarly, the outlook for benchmark rates is mixed, with 38% of respondents anticipating a slight decline in the next 12 months and the remaining expecting them to either remain constant (29%), increase slightly (30%) or increase significantly (3%). These findings align with the low levels of business confidence currently evident in the market as the Australian economy struggles with sticky inflation and persistently high interest rates. In its latest August decision, the RBA held borrowing costs at a 12-year high and lifted its forecasts for inflation in the period ahead. Minutes of its policy meeting showed the central bank might possibly keep rates steady for \"an extended period,\" in an apparent diversion from its global counterparts.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "9e7c808b-1fac-42e8-92c7-438780152950", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.29, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.07 }, "kind": "title", "text": "ECONOMIC OUTLOOK", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "332ba857-1d4b-4502-b35f-f65a546878e0", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "name": "Inductive Reasoning", "slug": "inductive-reasoning", "agent": "Architect", "layer": "loop", "matchId": "019dd95a-10d4-718b-9f5b-2dcde97b9598", "evidence": "Recession donut + inflation likert + interest-rate likert combine to argue cautious outlook.", "confidence": 72 }, { "name": "Annotation", "slug": "annotation", "agent": "Designer", "layer": "slide", "matchId": "019dd95a-10d4-718b-9f5b-358fdeb53ec8", "evidence": "Every donut slice and bar segment carries a percent label (36.71%, 40.51%, etc.).", "confidence": 85 }, { "name": "Chart Selection Guide", "slug": "chart-selection-guide", "agent": "Designer", "layer": "slide", "matchId": "019dd95a-10d4-718b-9f5b-3392c4d74689", "evidence": "Donut for categorical recession timing + horizontal stacked bar for 5-point likert.", "confidence": 85 }, { "name": "Chart Selection Guide", "slug": "chart-selection-guide", "agent": "Designer", "layer": "slide", "matchId": "131e0afc-bd1c-4562-9e43-35a8714b970d", "evidence": "The slide contains various charts (bar-stacked, pie) to present data.", "confidence": 0.6 }, { "name": "Color Strategy", "slug": "color-strategy", "agent": "Designer", "layer": "slide", "matchId": "019dd95a-10d4-718b-9f5b-3b922b1331b9", "evidence": "Sequential blue gradient encodes the 1-5 likert scale across both charts.", "confidence": 75 }, { "name": "Concrete Language", "slug": "concrete-language", "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "matchId": "019dd95a-10d4-718b-9f5b-3c4728121e64", "evidence": "Body copy cites RBA cash rate, 12-year high, August decision specifics.", "confidence": 80 } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 11, "from": 3, "beatId": "019dd95a-0682-776c-8e37-037b67c39c7e", "arcName": "The Triple Take", "arcSlug": "triple-take", "beatName": "The Facts (What)", "beatSlug": "triple-take-the-facts-what", "evidence": "Macro context p3, key insights p4, survey charts p5-11 (economic, trends, responses, distressed, insolvency).", "position": 1, "confidence": 72, "parentBeatName": "Setup", "parentBeatSlug": "setup" } ], "loops": [ { "to": 11, "from": 5, "name": "Pattern Hunter", "slug": "02-pattern-hunter", "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong", "matchId": "019dd95a-07fe-70ce-8d3f-97aca3d05f46", "evidence": "Recession outlook p5 + market growth p6 + director use p7 + NED role p8 + business actions p9 + investor strategy p10 + insolvency p11 all reinforce one pattern.", "position": 2, "objective": "Stack multiple survey-evidence slides to establish the pattern that the Australian market is broadly stressed", "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion", "confidence": 78, "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }